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5 Political Maneuvers To Watch Out For

Published: Jan 2, 2012 06:13:13 AM IST
Updated: Jan 2, 2012 09:44:28 AM IST

American Dream
The White House profile of President Barack Obama says that his story is the American story. The next year will reveal the new twists in that tale. The question in 2008 was whether America will vote a black man for the top job. It did. Now the question is whether the people will give Obama another term.

So far, no contender has shown political acumen and charisma rivaling Obama’s. But he has fallen well short of expectations on fixing the economy and his foreign policy has not been spectacular. He is unpopular with the American elite and his ratings in general have plunged from the highs of 2008-2009.

5 Political Maneuvers To Watch Out For

China Chief
In Beijing, Hu Jintao will step down as general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the 18th party congress next year. The CPC general secretary also automatically becomes the next premier. It is expected that Xi Jinping, a reform-minded son of a former party heavyweight will succeed Hu. Xi was responsible for organising the Beijing Olympics and was considered on his way to the Premier’s chair.

However, eyebrows were raised when he was not made vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission at the 17th party congress last year, believed to be a stepping stone to the ultimate position of power. The pause in his rise notwithstanding, Xi is still believed to be the chosen one.

A New Indian President
India will also elect a new president next year. Though the post is only slightly more than ceremonial in nature, this election could be interesting because it may bring in radical change at the Centre. Rumour mills  suggest that Manmohan Singh, increasingly seen as a lame duck prime minister, may be chosen to the high office. The elections provide UPA leader, the Congress, an excuse to shuffle the cabinet without seeming to remove Singh for being a failure. That would mean an interim prime minister will have to be chosen. Again, grapevine has it that Meira Kumar, the current Lok Sabha speaker, could be that person. Who knows, if the UP elections in May bring a windfall for the Congress, Rahul Gandhi himself could take over as PM.

Russian Rotation
Winds of change are sweeping across the Moskva too. In Russia, former president and current PM Vladimir Putin is expected to make a comeback albeit with diminished power. In the recent elections to the State Duma, the country’s parliament, Putin’s United Russia party managed fewer than half the votes, down from about 65 percent before. Lower numbers in parliament also mean Putin can’t tinker with the constitution at will if he becomes president.

States Of the Nation
The UP elections will be the most-watched among the six state elections in 2012. Rahul Gandhi has already kicked off the Congress campaign with a rally on Nov. 14 in Phulpur, the erstwhile constituency of his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru. Mayawati picked up the gauntlet with a resolution to split the state into four.  The joker in the pack, however, could well be Akhilesh Yadav, son of SP leader Mulayam Singh, who has been on a hectic campaign across the state. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi will be seeking another term in Gujarat. Modi is positioning himself for a national role as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Party president Nitin Gadkari has said the candidate will have to be an elected member of the Lok Sabha. He himself could be an aspirant.

Illustration: Anjan Das; Photographs: Gandhi: Vijay Mathur / Reuters; Obama: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters; Putin: Sergei Karpukhin / Reuters; Xi Jinping: Reuters

(This story appears in the 06 January, 2012 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)

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