Germany, Brazil and Spain predicted to be likely winners by UBS, based on Elo Ratings with the soccer world cup slated to kick off on June 14, Swiss multinational bank UBS has come out with a set of predictions based on Elo Ratings, which measure a team’s strength by assessing its past performances.
The bank has drawn a large number of random variables and run over 10,000 simulations to put Germany, Brazil and Spain as the three likeliest winners. It has also plotted the ratings to highlight the differences between the top and the lowest-ranked teams in each group as well as the average strengths of each group. It predicts Germany and Brazil to top Groups E and F, and hosts Russia to rank second in Group A (after Uruguay) to make it to the knockout stage. Group H—comprising Colombia, Japan, Poland and Senegal that are ranked fairly close—is too close to call, although the simulation model predicts Colombia to win.