When India tested nuclear bombs in 1998, its leaders hailed it as some sort of a scarecrow that would deter its enemies from adopting aggressive designs. But ironically, the last 12 years have seen an increase in hostility against India. Its sphere of influence has shrunk as neighbours yield to the Chinese temptation. Amorphous, boundary-less terrorist networks have become powerful adversaries in their own right. Naxal violence has removed any semblance of governance in wide areas and home-grown Jihadists are proliferating. The problems are too many but there is no clarity on what long-term strategies the government has developed to face them. Here are seven worst-case scenarios that India must prepare for, though some are low probability.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Capacity Falls into the Hands of Rogue States/Terrorists
Pakistan is a perennially failing state, but one that won’t fail entirely. A dysfunctional democracy keeps resurfacing after every assault from a power-hungry army that often leans on Jihadists for support. India hasn’t yet figured out whether to talk peace with Pakistan or show aggression, as both strategies have failed repeatedly.
China, on its part, has 400 nuclear warheads and can attack every nook and corner of India. It does have a “no-first-use” policy in general. But it may not extend that courtesy to India even though it does not recognise India as a nuclear power. It has consistently refused to discuss confidence building measures or nuclear risk reduction measures with India.
(This story appears in the 27 August, 2010 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
Wow. You predict so many unlikely doomsday scenarios without even offering plausible reasons. There is a boundary to making assumptions. You landed in a different continent altogether.
on Sep 30, 2010India has to show more friendly attitude towards China and increase its trade with China in a big way as US is failing in giving support required due to its own economic problems and perceptions on Pak`s support . Development in the backward regions of the country will definitely take away the edge of Naxal movement . The best solution to many of the threats is the strategic partnership with China .
on Aug 31, 2010It is time India got its act straight. It should open direct talks with China on the border issues and other security related matters. If the trade volume can be $60 billion, why can't you resolve political issues in the same manner. At a juncture where both the Asian giants are growing economically and have a growing population peace at all costs is required. As of today China is the worlds second largest economy and India is not far behind. It is best to secure the present for a brighter future!
on Aug 28, 2010