A Day of Posturing at Copenhagen

If the climate was a bank, the US would have saved it - This was the unequivocal and rather polemical proclamation from a head of state, that in some measure echoes what many economists and environmentalists have been debating for sometime: That the cost of mitigating climate change today is expected to cost donor countries a few percentage points of the world’s GDP (low single digit figures in corporate-speak), and in absolute terms lower than what the US government coughed up in its cumulative bail-out package for the financial sector last year.

The leader who made that comment was of course Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, whose address to the joint high-level segment to the Conference of Parties on Wednesday drew the biggest audience. People stepped out from side events and gathered around projection TVs to hear his take on the state of the planet. In a speech riddled with rhetoric, he invoked everyone from Fidel Castro, to Jesus Christ, to French anti-capitalist writer, Herve Kempf, to make his point that rich industrialised nations were responsible for the biggest bulk of carbon-dioxide pollution.
The Venezuelan President's capitalism bashing aside, it is becoming increasingly apparent that finding the money is not an insurmountable problem. His words also echoed what some emerging and developing economies have have been trying to convey, the "scourge" today is not just climate change, but also the failure to fulfil Millennium Development Goals, and the failure to deal with the fact that carbon emissions of the world’s poorest even in emerging economies is a pittance, and that the money that needs to be put on the table does not cost the moon.

The day saw more rhetoric as closed door wrangling at working group meets segued into public plain speak by over 40 heads of state.

While Nafie Ali Nafie, assistant of the president of Sudan, stated that he was absolutely against any agreement that replaced the Kyoto protocol, the Maldives’ President, Mohammed Nasheed, said that his country expected emission reductions from developed countries that were no less than 40 percent by 2020, and 95 percent by 2050.

Eithiopia’s PM Meles Zenawi, meanwhile, put concrete numbers on what he expected in terms of short- and long-term finance to the least developing countries and island states: $50 billion every year until 2015 and $100 billion a year till 2020 to be put into a trust fund and managed by donor and recipient countries and administered by the African development bank. He asked for fifty percent of that to be disbursed for adaptation measures and the creation of creative means of financing this fund - from taxes on market transactions, carbon levies to capping emissions from aviation and shipping.

As an aside, what struck some observers at the conference was how India’s name did not come up every time emerging economies and their actions were alluded to, especially since China was mentioned several times. A shift in geo-political equations? The political pundits could better explain that one.

India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh, on his part, listed a host of well-known climate related measures that India has adopted; the National Action Plan on Climate Change encompassing eight missions and 24 initiatives, the setting up of energy efficiency standards, the green tribunal along with a US-style environmental protection agency and, most recently, a domestic IPCC-like body encompassing over a hundred scientific and technological institutions to monitor and model different aspects of climate change.

One of points that I found interesting was Ramesh’s calculation that India could aid developed nations cut their emissions by 10 percent by investing in projects in the country, no doubt a reminder that India is an eager party to the carbon trading market. He also made it a point to stress that India had one of the most rigorous MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) procedures in the world — no doubt a crucial negotiating stance in working to avoid legally binding commitments for India in the new climate deal.

But as world leaders presented their case for an equitable deal, the process itself faced some upheaval on Wednesday. Many of the G77 nations while asking for more time to sort the Kyoto Protocol draft, expressed outrage at a new draft text that was tabled by the President of the Conference of Parties without their knowledge.

There continues to be ambiguity on major issues in the draft like the provision of trade measures in aiding emission reduction, enhanced action on adaptation and long term financing. Meanwhile observers continued to be kept out of the high level meetings and the situation outside situation outside remained volatile with violence becoming the mainstay between protestors and the police.

The Swedish environment minister, Andreas Calgren, speaking on behalf of EU member states had ealier said, “Let’s not leave Copenhagen till climate deal is sealed.” The question continues to haunt us - can a meaningful agreement be cobbled together in time?

(The author is a Deputy Special Features Editor at CNN-IBN and is currently on a sabbatical at Oxford University)