Will it be Catch-22 for Manohar Parrikar?

Just like former Prime Minister and BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manohar Parrikar is often described as "a good man in the wrong party." In the run up to the assembly elections in Goa, the local BJP leader only enhanced his clean reputation by campaigning against illegal mining, an issue that had the ruling Congress-led state government in all kinds of difficulties.

When it comes to mining, Parrikar, a metallurgical engineer, knows his minerals. A former Chief Minister of the picturesque state, he had piloted a Public Accounts Committee report on illegal mining and even made a presentation to the Supreme Court-appointed Shah Commission that was investigating the issue in the state. When submission of the Commission report got delayed, it was alleged that the local Congress had convinced its bigger brother in Delhi to help.

The Goa iron ore industry is one of the biggest in the country and among its largest exporters. But for the past two years the state has been on the verge of having its own "Bellary moment." Bellary is the infamous home of Reddy brothers who have used mining money to garner power and threatened to bring down the Karnataka state government.

As I write, all that noise has now paid off for Parrikar with BJP today making a clean sweep in Goa, already winning 25 seats in the 40-seat assembly. The most surprising element is the "communal party"  even winning Catholic-dominated regions in the state that were till now Congress havens. The most telling of the results has been the defeat of the powerful Alemao family, also a major miner in the state. Four of the family, including Churchill Alemao, his brother, nephew and daughter contested from the Catholic-dominated Salcette belt but got a drubbing from their BJP rivals. Another member of a prominent mining family Arjun Salgaoncar, on an independent ticket, also lost to a BJP candidate.

So was the illegal mining issue the main reason for these unexpected defeats? As my friend Smitha Venkateswaran, someone who has tracked the industry and politics of the state for sometime now, says, "It was not THE issue, but one of the issues. The basic issue was the inaction of the Congress government and illegal mining was one of them."

And this is where Parrikar might find himself in a Catch-22 situation. Even though he is known to be relatively "clean" and has stayed away from mining, many from his own party have been linked to the industry. Ironically, the BJP candidate, Subhash Faldesai who defeated Churchill Alemao's nephew is himself a prominent mining transporter! Similarly, there are at least two more instances of candidates connected to the mining industry winning on BJP tickets. Says Ramesh Ghawas, a prominent anti-mining activist in the state: "It has always been very difficult for any political party in Goa to stand against the powerful mining lobby. But Parrikar has been the most vocal politician against illegal mining. He will have to take some action."

Parrikar had bravely said while campaigning that if elected he will take action against illegal mining by simply "stopping it." That would mean immediately cancelling licences, taking action and penalising powerful miners and helping table the Shah Commission report as soon as possible. But as the parties after this landslide victory get over, and he once again sits on that Chief Minister's chair, will Parrikar walk the talk?

The thoughts and opinions shared here are of the author.