New US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil are forcing a shift in India’s crude oil sourcing strategy, showing a pivot away from discounted Russian oil towards the US and other suppliers. Rosneft and Lukoil account for more than half of Russian crude output and three-fifths of India’s crude oil imports.
India’s total crude imports increased to an estimated 23,039.2 kilotonnes, marking a robust increase of 18.2 percent year-on-year, signalling strong domestic demand, according to an analysis of import volumes for October based on LSEG data. This surge also breaks a five-month streak of declining crude imports.
However, as crude import volumes rise, the supplier landscape is undergoing a significant rebalancing. For instance, in a notable change, the US’s share of India’s import basket jumped dramatically to 10.1 percent in October from 4.1 percent just a month earlier in September. This surge positions the US as a critical alternate source.
Meanwhile, Russia maintained its position as the top supplier in October, even as its market share slipped to an estimated 30.8 percent from 32.7 percent in September, and well below the peak of 39.9 percent reached in June. Though the US sanctions were only announced in late October, the dip reflects a pre-emptive scaling back by Indian refiners. Media reports indicate that Indian and Chinese refiners are considering cutting back Russian crude imports, causing major oil trade disruption. This uncertainty has already led to some India-bound Russian crude tankers reportedly reversing course.
Meanwhile, the dominance of India’s traditional oil suppliers — the members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bloc — continued to soften, with their collective share falling to an estimated 46.5 percent in October, down from 50.9 percent in September. The American supply influx has, therefore, come at the expense of both Russian and West Asian oil suppliers.
The full impact of these sanctions is not expected to be visible until the December arrivals.
Ahead of the November 21 transaction deadline with sanctioned entities, Indian refiners say they will not stop importing cheap Russian oil, but they will continue sourcing oil only from smaller, non-sanctioned suppliers.
First Published: Nov 10, 2025, 18:09
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