India's FY27 growth story is getting a Gulf-war haircut. India’s FY27 growth forecasts are facing sharp downward revisions as rising crude (analysts expect crude oil to average $80-90 per barrel) and supply chain shocks bite. As ICRA slashes its FY27 growth forecast by 60 bps to 6.5 percent, so does Bank of Baroda, Goldman Sachs and Nomura. OECD also trims GDP projections to 6.1 percent. Fitch and S&P, however, nudge estimates upward. There seems to be no consensus yet, but the direction of risk is clear: escalating war in West Asia and the "Strait of Hormuz" factor remains a major wildcard for the economy.
