The monsoon rainfall has moderated in the third week of July, but has still crossed the above-normal average. The area for sowing kharif crops, during this period, has picked up pace while reservoir storage levels have continued to increase. Cumulatively, all-India rainfall was 6.4 percent above the long period average (LPA) as of July 21, based on India Metrological Department (IMD) data analysis by Barclays. This compares to a surplus of 9.8 percent LPA as on July 13, indicating the pace of monsoon rainfall has continued to slow down.
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Last week, rainfall was below normal for the first time this season, says Barclays, and the surplus in both the north-west and central regions moderated. Pickup in rainfall in Andhra Pradesh has reduced the deficit in the southern states. The IMD expects “near normal to above normal" rainfall in central and south peninsular India in the last week of July, and “below normal" over most parts of north-west India.
As of July 18, the area covered under kharif crops was 65 percent of the normal area sown. In this period so far, kharif rice sowing has accelerated, while the pace of sowing in pulses has moderated. The water storage in key reservoirs was at 57 percent of the total capacity.
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(Rain Watch is a weekly series that monitors India"s monsoon, tracking detailed insights on rainfall trends, regional distribution variations, water reservoir levels and sowing progress of essential kharif crops. This is the third year of Forbes India tracking the intersection of climate patterns and agri-economics.)
