The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surged far ahead of projections on November 14, with the latest trends showing the ruling coalition winning 202 of Bihar’s 243 seats, placing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on course for a fifth consecutive term. Kumar is already the state’s longest-serving chief minister.
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav retained Raghopur by 14,532 votes, but the wider opposition Mahagathbandhan was trailing heavily. By 5:30 pm, the NDA had convincingly surpassed its 2020 tally of 122 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan was leading in just 35 seats, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) remained without a win. The Opposition party Congress secured 6 seats, improving on its worst performance in the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, where it secured only 4 seats.
Senior leaders in the fray included Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, Janshakti Janata Dal (JJD) leader Tej Pratap, and Bihar Congress president Rajesh Kumar. Counting began at 8 am under tight security across 46 counting centres.
The state registered a historic turnout of 67.13 percent in the two-phase election held on November 6 and November 11.
Most exit polls had forecast a comfortable NDA win, which Tejashwi Yadav dismissed as inaccurate. With trends now indicating a landslide in favour of the ruling coalition, the exit polls appear to have captured the broad direction correctly but underestimated the scale of the NDA victory.
The forecasts captured the direction correctly but missed the margins, similar to what was observed in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections. Only Poll Diary came close to estimating the upper range of the NDA’s performance, while most others significantly underestimated the scale of the ruling alliance’s gains.
However, exit polls are only estimates. Their accuracy depends on how many voters are interviewed, which locations are selected, and whether people are willing to disclose their choices truthfully. As a result, exit polls often differ from the final result. In 2024, their reliability was sharply questioned after several major misses at both national and state levels.
Most surveys predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would cross 350 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. When results were announced three days later, the NDA won 293 seats and the BJP secured 240 seats.
This was a setback for the party, which had won 303 seats in 2019 and was aiming for 370 seats on its own. The BJP lost ground in key regions including Uttar Pradesh and did not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu, despite several exit polls suggesting gains in the south. Its national vote share also fell to 36.56 percent in 2024 from 37.7 percent in 2019.
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, made up of the Congress, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, together won 232 seats. Congress improved to 99 seats and the Samajwadi Party rose sharply to 37 seats after winning only 5 in 2019.
The large gap between exit poll projections and final results also briefly affected the stock market. Share indices hit record highs the day after exit polls were published but fell sharply the next day, erasing nearly 400 billion dollars in value.
One of the few assessments that came close to the final outcome was by KCore Analytics. The firm used artificial intelligence to study public behaviour on social media and combined this with data such as inflation. Its analysis suggested the BJP would win between 240 and 250 seats and predicted around 300 for the NDA.
Several surveys, including those by Axis My India and Republic TV with Matrize, predicted that the Congress would cross the majority mark of 46 in the 90-seat Assembly. Axis projected 53 to 65 seats for the Congress and only 18 to 28 for the BJP.
When counting ended, the BJP increased its tally to 48 seats in 2024 from 40 in 2019 and secured a third consecutive term. Its vote share rose to 39.9 percent in 2024 from 36.5 percent in 2019. Congress also increased its share to 39.1 percent but won only 37 seats.
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), both influential among the Jat community, saw their combined vote share fall to 7 percent in 2024 from 21 percent in 2019. The Congress later accused the Election Commission of delays in updating results on its website, which the EC denied.
Exit polls suggested gains for the BJP in the newly formed Union Territory, but the actual results were more complex.
In Jammu, which has a Hindu majority, the BJP increased its vote share to 45 percent in 2024 from 40 percent in 2014 and won 29 seats.
In the Kashmir Valley, the INDIA bloc swept 41 of 47 seats, reducing the People’s Democratic Party to three seats. With its combined performance in both regions, the alliance won a total of 49 seats. Omar Abdullah of the National Conference is now set to take charge as Chief Minister.
Axis My India projected 178 to 200 seats for the Mahayuti in the 288-seat Assembly. The alliance ultimately crossed 230 seats, well beyond most estimates. Most polls placed the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi far higher than where it eventually finished.
Most agencies had predicted a close contest or an edge for the BJP-led NDA. However, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA alliance, headed by Chief Minister Hemant Soren, swept the polls by leading in more than 50 of the 81 seats.
Axis My India was among the few to suggest the possibility of a strong INDIA bloc performance, projecting 49 to 59 seats for the Congress–JMM alliance.
Peoples Insight estimated 40 to 44 seats for the BJP and 25 to 29 for AAP, while P MarQ projected 39 to 49 seats for the BJP and 21 to 31 for AAP. JVC and Chanakya Strategies offered similar ranges, placing the BJP above 39 seats.
The final result closely matched these trends. The BJP won 48 of the 70 seats, ending AAP’s ten-year rule in the national capital. AAP secured 22 seats and the Congress failed to win any. AAP’s vote share declined by 10 percent from the 2020 election, while the BJP’s rose to nearly 49 percent.
First Published: Nov 15, 2025, 14:00
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