Crude oil has crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, driven by escalating tensions in West Asia. For an import dependant nation like India, the timing is costly as a $10 rise in crude oil prices costs an additional $12–15 billion in annual imports. Assuming that oil prices continue on the same upward path and increase beyond $120 a barrel, the country's oil import bill could hit $220 billion in FY27, nearly double FY26's $128 billion estimate, sharply widening the oil trade deficit as a share of GDP and putting fresh pressure on the rupee and current account.
