Following decades of advocating for family planning programmes, some of India's religious organisations and state governments are now encouraging families to have more children. This shift is driven by concerns over declining fertility levels, even though several of the nation's most impoverished and populous states continue to have high birth rates.
While India overtook China as the most populous nation in the world more than two years ago, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR), a key indicator used to determine the sustainability of a population beyond a generation, dipped to a near-replacement level of 2.0 in 2022, according to data form the Registrar General of India's 2022 report. UN estimates suggest that in 2025, India’s TFR has fallen below replacement levels to 1.9.
Seven states in the country have a higher TFR than the national average despite seeing significant decline in the past three decades. For instance, Bihar maintains a TFR of 3, higher than the average for lower middle-income countries, which is at 2.6 and comparable to the averages across countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Similarly, Uttar Pradesh has a TFR of 2.6, while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have a TFR of 2.5 each. Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Assam also have higher fertility rates compared to the India figure.
However, across all states, a clear inverse relationship exists between the level of a woman's education and the number of children she has. In states with high TFRs, the gap is particularly stark. In Chhattisgarh, where the TFR among illiterate women is 3.9, for women with a graduate degree or above, it is 1.9. In Bihar, an illiterate woman has an average of 3.7 children, while a college-educated woman has just 2.1. A similar trend is seen in other states as well. In Madhya Pradesh, the TFR for illiterate women is 3.5, but it drops to 1.9 for those with a graduate degree or higher.
Meanwhile, there are 14 states at the opposite extreme, most of them in the south, with fertility rates already below the level needed for population replacement. With a TFR of only 1.3, Tamil Nadu's fertility rate mirrors that of Japan. Notably, Delhi, the national capital, shares the same low TFR.
Similarly, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have a TFR between 1.5 and 1.6. This demographic trend is reflected in their low crude birth rates, with Tamil Nadu and Kerala recording just 12.1 and 12.4 live births per 1,000 people, compared to the India average of 19.1. Other prosperous states like Maharashtra (14.7) and Delhi (13.3) also show similar patterns.
In response to falling fertility levels, Andhra Pradesh is considering financial incentives for large families. And certain religious organisations are encouraging families to have more children.