India projected to surpass Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in FY26

The IMF projections show India is expected to overtake Japan only in FY26, when its GDP is forecast to hit $4.187 trillion, ahead of Japan's projected $4.186 trillion for calendar year 2025

  • Published:
  • 05/06/2025 11:19 AM

India has surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy Image: Shutterstock

Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam has announced that India has officially overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. But there’s more to it than what meets the eye. During a media briefing, Subrahmanyam said: “We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. It is only the US, China and Germany which are larger than India, and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in two-and-a-half to three years, we will be the third-largest economy.” 

While the projection is that India has already surpassed Japan, technically, it is yet to be achieved. According to IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, India’s GDP is projected to touch $3.94 trillion during FY25, while Japan’s GDP for calendar year 2024 is estimated at $4.026 trillion. Essentially, fiscal numbers for the former are contrasted with the calendar year numbers for the latter.

Related Stories

  • How India is reshaping global trade
  • RBI annual report: Indian economy in the fast lane RBI annual report: Indian economy in the fast lane
  • US Volatility: Is India insulated?

The IMF projections show India is expected to overtake Japan only in FY26, when its GDP is forecast to hit $4.187 trillion, ahead of Japan’s projected $4.186 trillion for calendar year 2025. So, there is still some time to go before India overtakes Japan in the rankings. 

Also read: Exclusive: Raamdeo Agrawal on why global investors are turning to India, not China or the US

With GDPs in the trillions, the top ten economies wield a great influence on the world stage. The US still leads the pack, trailed closely by China. But the spotlight now turns to India, with it being projected to soon surpass Japan and marking its place as the fourth largest economy.