US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and China’s dominance over critical minerals are pushing countries, including India and Canada, into a “new and necessary alignment”, says Victor Fedeli, Ontario’s minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. Canadian politician Fedeli, who is visiting India this week as part of Ontario’s latest trade outreach, puts it bluntly: “President Trump’s tariffs came out of nowhere. We now wake up every morning looking at our iPhone with one eye open, with nervousness and anxiety about what new hell he has brought us this morning.”
At the same time, he says, China has “weaponised critical minerals”, affecting supply chains across India, Southeast Asia and Europe. These global disruptions, he adds, have accelerated collaboration between countries seeking stable supply chains. “The two of them, Trump and China, have forced all of us into each other’s arms,” he says.
The backdrop to Fedeli’s comments is a widening global minerals crunch. China’s rare earth regulations, introduced in April and expanded in October, require exporters to secure individual licences for each shipment. These rules caused shortages as early as May, forcing parts of the global auto industry to cut production.
Several European leaders are expected to visit Beijing to discuss access to these materials. China and the US are also negotiating a “general licence” system following the recent Xi-Trump trade truce. In India, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in October that some Indian firms had received licences from China.
China defended these controls at the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, where Premier Li Qiang said the country must “cautiously manage” minerals with strategic and military applications, Bloomberg reported on November 23.
Given this global context, Ontario is positioning itself as a stable partner in the critical minerals supply chain. Fedeli highlights that the Canadian province holds every mineral required to build a lithium-ion battery, including lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. “We do not want to bring rocks up and ship them,” he says. “We want all the value added in Ontario.”
To support this strategy, Ontario has created a $500 million Critical Minerals Processing Fund that is open to international investors. The province previously invested $162 million in Frontier Lithium’s refinery project alongside Mitsubishi, and Fedeli says similar interest is emerging for new projects. “That $500 million will not last long,” he says. “Come and be investors in the processing of these minerals.”
Meanwhile, India has introduced its own initiative in the critical minerals space. On November 26, the Union Cabinet approved a Rs 7,280-crore scheme to manufacture 6,000 MTPA of sintered rare earth permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, defence systems, aerospace equipment and renewable energy with the aim to reduce import dependence and strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Also Read: The auto industry’s rare earth problem, and what comes next
Fedeli noted that relations between India and Canada have stabilised after the diplomatic freeze of 2023-2024. Ties between the two nations strained after then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian government agents were potentially linked to the killing of Khalistani separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar; India rejected the claim.
Ontario’s provincial offices in India were directly affected when the Canadian embassy closed temporarily, Fedeli says. But he stressed that Indian companies “were resilient” and continued business talks even during the freeze. Now, he says, the relationship has regained momentum. Ontario continues to report a 59 percent increase in two-way trade with India since 2018, despite the slowdown during the political rift.
Fedeli’s visit also comes as India and Canada agreed to restart negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) at the G20 meeting in Johannesburg on November 23. India aims to raise bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, while Canada set its targets on $70 billion. In 2024, trade between the two countries stood at $22.6 billion.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney also met at the G7 Summit in June. The foreign ministers of both countries have met three times this year. Canada’s trade minister visited India in November, and high commissioners were reinstated in August.
“Canada and India are looking towards a comprehensive deal… very doable, and it will be led by Ontario—critical minerals, nuclear. Those are the things we’ll put on offer,” Fedeli says. He expects progress as early as 2026, when both leaders are expected to be back in India, along with Fedeli himself. “I’ll be back at least twice in 2026,” he adds.
Beyond minerals, Ontario is also targeting Indian technology companies as part of its broader investment outreach. The Canadian province is home to 85,000 artificial intelligence (AI) workers, 400 AI companies and 1,800 graduate students in AI-related fields, and is positioning itself as a potential North American base for Indian tech and AI firms. “Ontario is the hub of AI,” Fedeli says. “It is the cradle.”
He adds that the technology is reshaping long-established industries. “Companies who have been making products in Ontario for 50 or 100 years have realised they cannot continue making them the same way. If they do not keep up, others will come and eat their lunch.”
As part of this visit, Fedeli says Ontario is meeting Indian technology firms looking to expand into North America. “Ontario has exactly what they need,” he said. “We have the right mix of talent that is so desired.” He says Indian digital, IT, enterprise technology and AI companies seeking talent and access to United States and Canadian markets remain a core focus of Ontario’s outreach.
Fedeli describes the impact of US tariffs as the “Trump Accelerator”, referring to how businesses and governments are making decisions they long postponed. One example is interprovincial free trade within Canada. “I have been working on this for seven years. We did not change a comma,” he says. “In six months, we signed a deal.”
Ontario has also reshored significant manufacturing. The province now produces 74 percent of its personal protective equipment (PPE) and expects to reach 92 percent soon. The same trend is visible across sectors where supply chains were heavily reliant on China.
Amid global uncertainty, Fedeli’s message to Indian companies is simple: Ontario is ready to serve as a reliable and investment-friendly partner during a period of geopolitical turbulence. “These are national issues. They do not enter our day-to-day discussions,” he says, referring to earlier diplomatic tensions between India and Canada. “The fundamentals have not changed. Let us get to work.”
First Published: Nov 27, 2025, 17:13
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