The phone hasn’t stopped buzzing at a prominent hospital in South Delhi in the last few days. The hospital—known for its diabetes treatment, among other things—says most of them are inquiries around weight-loss drugs.
The patent for Semaglutide—the molecule behind weight-loss and diabetes drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic—expires in India on March 20. As a result, a number of Indian generic drug manufacturers are expected to enter the market, offering steep discounts on what was already on offer. The other drug of a similar vein, Tirzepatide, is under patent protection, with the key patents held by Eli Lilly, and marketed as Mounjaro.
Both the drugs, known as GLP-1 class of molecules, mimic a natural hormone that regulates hunger. It slows down digestion, and makes people feel full faster and for longer durations. Monthly prices for these drugs can start at nearly ~Rs10,000 and go up to ~Rs25,000. With new players coming into the fray, the prices are expected to drop by 50 to 70 percent, amounting to monthly costs of ~Rs3,000 to ~Rs5,000. Brokerages have called it a ‘magic pill moment’ for India, predicting that the Semaglutide market can reach $1 billion by 2030.
Analysts and pharma industry stakeholders, though, say companies might use a wait-and-watch formula before entering the fray. Sarabjit Kour Nangra, an independent equity market expert, says it’s difficult to predict the number of players who will enter the market. “It’s difficult to foresee anything as there are other secondary patents. The molecule is also complex, and there might be marketing issues. Due to this, the number of players in the initial round can be few. Some players might use a wait-and-watch approach,” she says.
The regulatory hurdle and the side effects these drugs may show are other aspects these companies, especially the smaller ones, have to contend with. The Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) advisory, issued on March 10, warned manufacturers against “direct or indirect promotional activities”, including the use of influencers, disease awareness campaigns, digital outreach and any messaging that exaggerates benefits or suggests guaranteed weight-loss outcomes.
According to the Wegovy’s website, the most common side effects include nausea, diarrhoea, vomiting, constipation, abdominal pain and headaches. Late last year, the Australian drug regulator issued mental health warnings for weight-loss drugs, including Ozempic.
Nilaya Varma, co-founder and group CEO, Primus Ventures says India-specific eligibility criteria may be another hurdle. “Global trials used BMI threshold built for Western populations. If CDSCO simply copies the FDA’s cut offs, a large number of patients won’t qualify for a prescription.”
On the price point, she adds that the reduced pricing may not solve all the problems. “Semiglutide is not on the government’s list of essential medicines. Patients pay entirely out of pocket. ~Rs3,000 per month is a substantial amount for most households. The real beneficiaries will remain the middle and upper-middle class.”
Other than these, experts say cold chain logistics could also be a problem for pharma companies. Injectable therapies need logistics, like a fridge, to sustain the injections. These have to be kept inside the fridge from the factory to the homes of the consumers. In February, Novo and Abbott tied up to commercialise Extensior, a Semaglutide injection to be marketed as the second brand of Type-2 diabetes drug Ozempic. MrMed, an online super-specialty pharmacy, opened a cold chain distribution hub in Bengaluru.
Some bigger players, though, have recently entered the market. Bengaluru-based OneSource Specialty Pharma had said in 2025 it was investing $100 million over the next two to three years. Dr Reddy’s had said it plans to launch the generic version of Semaglutide in 87 countries, including India, next year.
Nirali Shah, a research analyst in the pharma sector, says the patent expiry makes the category scalable but the real shift lies in how the revenue behaves. “As prices correct, the market expands. But persistence rather than access alone becomes the key variable. GLP-1 therapies have shown high discontinuation rates in real-world settings despite strong efficacy, influenced by factors like tolerability, treatment burden and access. It remains a complex peptide-device product, so regulatory clarity and quality oversight become important. While 50 to 60 players may enter the market, it will consolidate around the few who drive confidence.”
With new players possibly emerging, it remains to be seen if the pharma sector can emulate what it did in the early 2000s with HIV antiretroviral drugs. Firms like Novo are already advancing its oral 50-mg weight loss pill and Eli Lilly is conducting trials for Orforglipron, a non-peptide oral GLP-1 drug. But experts and analysts say playing the waiting game might augur well for the ‘pharmacy of the world’.
First Published: Mar 19, 2026, 13:17
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