Tennis fans have been treated to an era of incredible competition in the Men’s Singles field. With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic (and to an extent, Andy Murray) pushing each other harder and harder on the court every week, we have come to expect them to reach the semi-finals of tournaments and finish way ahead at the top of the ATP rankings each year. As the 2013 French Open kicks off, an analysis of the ATP rankings (which take into account points from all tournament appearances), shows just how far the top guys have pulled away from their competition.![Photo: Danny Moloshok / Reuters]()
Federer and Nadal pose together.
Photo: Danny Moloshok / Reuters
The Herfindahl Index is an economic metric used to measure the degree to which the biggest firms in the market would cause a monopoly if they merged: the higher the index, the higher the degree of dominance by the top firms. For example, in a market of 10 firms where each has 10% market share, the Index would be 0.1 (or 10 x 10%²). If however there were two firms with 60% market share, 3 firms with 30% and 5 making up the remaining 10%, the level of potential monopoly increases to 0.212 (or (2 x 0.3²) + (3 x 0.1²) + (5 x 0.02²). We can substitute firms for tennis players and market share for percentage of points between the top 10. There has been a definite increase in the ‘market share’ of points held by the top players and subsequently the Herfindahl Index.Let’s go back to 1998 when Roger Federer turned pro. The top three players in the world - Sampras (3915), Rios (3670) and Corretja (3398) - amassed 10,983 points between them: equal to the points of the next 3.5 ranks. 1999 saw Agassi destroying the field, collecting over 5,000 points, with 2
nd and 3
rd place just about managing 3000 – an anomaly as far as years go. In 2000, the top 3 had as many points as the next 5. In 2001, the top three had as many as the next 4. Same with 2002 and 2003. The gap between the top players and the rest of the field was very tight. Anyone from the top 10 could have a good year and finish on the podium. The difference between that era and today is marked: the top three are simply a cut above.
Sampras / Agassi Era We don’t know how long Federer and Nadal can keep going (one because of age, one because of injury) but there are no signs that players outside the top four will be breaking into the club any time soon. Good players like Ferrer, Tsonga, del Porto and Berdych may reach a semi or a final or even win a tournament, but in the long run they don’t stand a chance against the best that men’s tennis has seen in decades.
