All eyes are on the rainfall pattern in July, especially after the surplus showers in June. The monsoon kick-started last month with water reservoir levels rising and sowing of kharif crops gathering pace. Rainfall in June accounts for 15 percent of monsoon rains on average. The Indian Metrological department (IMD) forecasts rainfall in July to be 106 percent above long-period average (LPA), which is above normal rain.
As of July 1, rains were 10 percent above LPA on a cumulative basis, based on IMD data analysis by Barclays. In the week ended June 25, rainfall surplus was at 7 percent. Region-wise data showed that southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, along with Chhattisgarh and north-eastern parts of the country saw "large deficient" rainfall in June. States in the north-west (Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra) received surplus rainfall.
Area covered under kharif crops is 24 percent of normal area sown. The accelerated sowing of 11.3 percent year-on-year is due to rainfall at below normal in June last year, which resulted in delayed sowing in 2024.
As of June 26, storage in key reservoirs was at 36 percent of total capacity. This was much higher than the 21 percent level seen in the corresponding period of the previous year.
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(Rain Watch is a weekly series that monitors India"s monsoon, tracking detailed insights on rainfall trends, regional distribution variations, water reservoir levels and sowing progress of essential kharif crops. This is the third year of Forbes India tracking the intersection of climate patterns and agri-economics.)
