Statistics Ministry overhauls quarterly GDP methodology with new indicators
E-Vahan data, net GST collections to improve accuracy in 2022-23 base year series
By Samreen Wani
Last Updated: Jan 23, 2026, 21:21 IST2 min
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The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) will enhance quarterly GDP calculations by integrating high-frequency indicators. New data sources include vehicle registrations from the e-Vahan portal, aggregated GST records, and natural gas consumption figures, all aimed at improving the precision of short-term economic estimates.
In its third discussion paper, MOSPI said on Friday that these additions will improve calculations for sectors previously lacking high-frequency indicators and enable more detailed and “granular” institutional analysis. The ministry is seeking public comments and feedback on the proposed revisions.
National accounts are undergoing a base year revision to 2022-23, with the updated GDP estimates set for release on February 27.
Key changes in quarterly GDP compilation
In addition to incorporating new indicators, the quarterly GDP framework will shift to a different benchmarking method for national accounts.
While the current 2011-12 series employs the pro-rata method, this approach often creates “step problems”—artificial discontinuities caused by discrepancies between annual growth and quarterly indicators. These breaks hamper short-term trend analysis and seasonal adjustments. Following International Monetary Fund recommendations, the Ministry will adopt the Proportional Denton method for quarterly benchmarking—which reserves the original movement of quarterly indicators while ensuring consistency with annual data.
Benchmarking in national accounts aligns high-frequency quarterly data with low-frequency annual benchmarks to ensure consistency.
For the manufacturing sector, the ministry will utilise GST-based indicators for output, while corporate financial results will remain the primary source for gross value added (GVA) growth in the incorporated manufacturing sector. For unincorporated manufacturing—including household enterprises and quasi-corporate units—growth in ‘Outward Taxable Supply’ from HUFs, proprietorships and partnerships will serve as the indicator for both gross value of output and GVA.
The financial services sector will also see substantial changes to align quarterly estimates with annual national accounts practices. Four key sub-sectors—deposit taking corporations (banks), insurance corporations, central bank (Reserve Bank of India) and other financial intermediaries (except insurance corporations, pension funds and financial auxiliaries)--will also adopt new calculation methods.
Product tax calculations will now use net GST collections, including cess, replacing the previous method of using gross collections. Food subsidies, previously treated as product subsidies, will be reclassified as transfers in kind.
MOSPI is releasing a series of discussion papers to brief users on the methodological updates and new data sources for the 2022-23 base year revision. The first two papers, published in late 2025, detailed refinements to the production, income and expenditure approaches for Annual National Accounts. This third paper focuses specifically on enhancing the compilation of quarterly national accounts and sub-national accounts.
First Published: Jan 23, 2026, 21:21
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