In the movie ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’, Michelle Yeoh realizes it is impossible for her to fight all battles at once, so she must prioritize and choose the battles she wants to fight at a certain point in time.
This does not seem to bother Donald Trump, because he believes he can fight all battles, everywhere, all at once.
Not only is he very involved on the international scene in Ukraine, Israel/Gaza and Venezuela, he is also very much present on the domestic scene on the immigration front, battling with cities such as Washington, wrestling with the Fed or universities. For many people, it would be too much on a plate, but not for him. He does not need to prioritize between domestic and foreign issues, between economic and ideological battles. He does not even need to choose between his long-lasting supporters and opponents. He is using the ‘shock and awe’ method for everyone, everywhere. This could be because he believes he is so strong that no one can oppose him, or because he will not run for a third term, so this is his time, it will not repeat itself.
With this method, he accomplished the impossible: to anger not only his foes like Iran, Russia or China, but also his friends like South Korea, Japan or the European Union.
Following the adage ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’, if the United States becomes an enemy to even its staunchest friends like the United Kingdom, Canada or Australia, would it be impossible to imagine an ‘unholy alliance’ between China, India, Russia, Canada and the European Union, against the United States? The two meetings in Beijing demonstrated just that. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit hosted Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, while the military parade put together Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. This was a show of force and defiance against Western/US dominance. European countries except Slovakia and Serbia were not present, but it does not mean they will not be invited in the future.
All cards are on the table, and countries do not need to reinvent the wheel. They can just change Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ into ‘Canada First’, ‘Japan First’ or ‘France First’, and follow what is in the best interest of their countries, just like Trump does. Changing a decades-long strategy of alignment with the United States is certainly painful for these countries, but if they do not have a choice and if they believe that it is only temporary, they will prioritize, and they might decouple from the United States.
So, when will Donald Trump realize it is impossible for him to continue like this? As Mike Tyson used to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” And who will be the first one to punch? Canada, Japan, Germany, India or France? Individually, these countries do not stand a chance against the United States, but as a group, this is another question.
It seems unlikely that European countries will do this, because a friendship between the US and Europe that endured two world wars, and a cold war cannot disappear overnight. All the military and economic architecture post-World War II has been based on that friendship.
While it will not be easy, it is not impossible. We have to remember that the ‘ironclad alliance’ between the US and Japan/Korea is only 60 years old, that the US went from enemy to friend for Vietnam in only a couple of decades, and that France and Germany were enemies for a long time before building the European Union. Alliances can change depending on circumstances. They are not necessarily the product of will, they can be precipitated by external actions, in this case, the actions of the US pushing countries that usually do not cooperate closely to band together against a common threat. These countries can conclude that it is in the interest of all states to isolate the United States for the moment and present a common front, since the United States does not seem to have friends anymore.
Donald Trump may believe that the United States is so strong it does need friends. But in international politics and economy, this does not work. Other countries can decide that the US market is not as attractive as it used to be, and start looking for alternative markets. The US is the biggest recipient and the biggest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the world, but what happens if other countries stop investing in the US, if they erect barriers to investments coming from the US, or if they implement reciprocal tariffs to the American ones? This could be a big blow for American companies.
The possibility of having such a coalition against the United States remains very low because the United States’ actions are not an existential threat yet, but this can change. Several scenarios exist. The ‘wait and see’ approach is quite popular because countries can believe that Donal Trump can change his opinion, or that he can lose the mid-term elections next year. In that case it is useless to panic. The other scenario posits that when the American machine is put in motion, it will not stop, regardless of who is at helm. In that case, structural changes will be adopted by countries and they will decouple from the United States for a long time. To avoid this situation, Donald Trump needs to awaken to his Michelle Yeoh moment.
Cedomir Nestorovic is a Professor of Geopolitics at ESSEC Business School, Asia-Pacific.
First Published: Sep 29, 2025, 17:23
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