Mother of All Polls

The election commission has set the stage for elections to five state assemblies but political parties, especially in Uttar Pradesh (UP), had begun girding up several months ago. Surprisingly, while the elections were expected to be in March or April, the commission scheduled it for February. Delhi grapevine suggests that the Congress, which was eyeing the 10 Rajya Sabha seats from UP that would fall vacant in April, wanted it early. Mayawati’s BSP currently holds five of those and would have certainly retained them with the party’s present strength in the assembly. She seems to have seen through the ploy and advanced school exams in the state. But the tactic failed.

Elections to the 403 assembly seats in UP will arguably be the most watched one, not least for the personalities and stakes involved. Some have billed the elections as the semi-final before the Lok Sabha polls in 2014.

Few people predicted an absolute victory for Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party in 2007. But the dalit politician surprised everyone. Not many believe that she will be able to repeat the magic of 2007, but nobody is writing her off either. Whatever happens, she has a core strength of about 70-80 seats that she is unlikely to lose.

As things stand today, political observers believe, the fight is between the BSP and OBC leader Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. The BJP and the Congress are third and fourth players respectively. While the elections will be critical for both Mayawati and Mulayam, the man who has invested the most in UP is Rahul Gandhi. The scion of India’s first political family has been focused on UP for more than a year, repeatedly venturing to remote villages on people contact programmes. He jumped into an acrimonious land debate in Bhatta-Persaul a few months ago, positioning himself as the messiah of the poor farmer. He also chose to officially launch Congress’ poll campaign from Phulpur, which being Jawaharlal Nehru’s constituency evokes loads of party and family symbolism.

Rahul Gandhi has certainly made the Congress visible in the state, even though the party remains rift-ridden, cadre thin and without a chief ministerial candidate. His unofficial tag of India’s future prime minister also lends weight because the people may like to have the PM from their state. He is also trying to make good governance, development and economic progress as the main election plank instead of caste and community equations. His main target has been the chief minister herself and she seems to be wary of what he may achieve. While the party itself is expecting to cross the hundred seats mark based on its performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections when it won a surprising 21 seats.

The difference between a rookie and a seasoned politician was plain when in the midst of Gandhi’s hectic campaigning Mayawati threw in the forgotten bogey of state reorganization. She had first mooted splitting UP into four smaller states in 2007 after she became chief minister but the issue had remained dormant. She propped it at the right time and in one clean sweep negated a lot of work done by opposition parties, including the Congress.

Mayawati had won in 2007 by knitting together an unlikely alliance of dalits, which is her core, unflinching vote base, Brahmins and Muslims each of whom have pockets of influences in the state. As one veteran Hindi journalist explains, the party with the support of the most number of castes will always win UP.

That is the game that is on right now. The BJP is so far in disarray and is trying to rally behind Uma Bharti, Rajnath Singh adn Kalraj Mishra who still have considerable clout in parts of the state, especially among Brahmin voters. BJP’s biggest disadvantage is it cannot hope for Muslim votes and Hindu votes are split along caste lines.

While Rahul Gandhi has been on his UP tour, another political heir has been tirelessly wooing voters across the state. Admittedly, unlike Gandhi, the Australia-educated 38-year-old son of Mulayam Singh has drawn large crowds at each one of his over 100 rallies and street corner meetings. Whether these crowds will stamp their approval in the polling booth remains to be seen. Besides, SP has already been weakened by the exit of Amar Singh and Beni Prasad Verma, whose Rajput and Kurmi communities respectively would be miffed with the party. The party also got a jolt when Rashid Masood joined the Congress, reportedly displeased with Akhilesh Yadav’s ascension and influential Muslim leader Azam Khan’s clout. Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav, who is also the party’s leader in the assembly, also has been having a running feud with Azam Khan. SP’s woes notwithstanding, many expect the party to do well.

Much depends on the Muslim vote. Some expect the community vote to be split at least four ways – between SP, Congress, BSP and the wildcard Peace Party. Dr Mohammad Ayub, a physician who runs a hospital in Gorakhpur and a disposable syringes business, founded the Peace Party four years ago and has since shown immense acumen in creating an alliance of Muslims and Brahmins. In the Lakhimpur bypoll last year, the Peace Party put up a Brahmin candidate who was the runner up to SP’s winner. It also fought in Dumariyaganj bypoll with the same strategy. Though it came third, it managed to push SP to the fourth position.

As the scenario unfolds, one of the likely outcomes could be BSP losing its majority, SP and Congress doing well and the BJP relegated to fourth place. If that happens, UP could see a Congress-SP alliance government in power by March.

The thoughts and opinions shared here are of the author.