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Natural diamonds will continue to become more desirable as they get scarce: David Kellie of Natural Diamond Council

As the supply of natural diamonds declines and demand rises, the chief executive officer of the Natural Diamond Council speaks about the impact of lab-grown diamonds, about responsible mining and sustaining livelihoods

By Benu Joshi Routh

Published: Jul 4, 2025 01:40:49 PM IST

Updated: Jul 4, 2025 01:56:03 PM IST

David Kellie, CEO, Natural Diamond Council

In its recently released Diamond Facts Report, the Natural Diamond Council said that laboratory-grown diamond (LGD) prices have dropped significantly, with a 1.5-carat stone declining 86 percent since 2015 while natural diamonds have shown, on an average, a 2 percent increase year-on-year in rough diamond prices since 2007. The report also spoke about some common misconceptions surrounding laboratory-grown diamonds. David Kellie, who has over 30 years’ experience in marketing consumer brands around the world, took over as CEO of the National Diamond Council in 2019. The council promotes natural diamonds to consumers on the diamond industry’s behalf and receives funding from De Beers and other mining companies as well as some trade partners. In a conversation with Forbes India, Kellie speaks about the natural diamond market, the impact of lab-grown diamonds in the India market, and why natural diamonds will continue to see growth.

Q. What are your predictions for the natural diamond market in the next five years, considering current trends and challenges?

Five years is a long time, particularly when you look back, we couldn't have predicted the events in the world that have happened over the last five years. But from a diamond industry perspective, the two key components will be that the supply continues to decline. It gets more and more challenging to recover natural diamonds because they are a natural phenomenon. And of course, the rarer they get, the more expensive they are to recover.

And the demand, which has been challenged over the last couple of years, we see recovering as well. So the US market is kind of stable, still doing well at the high-end market. China seems to have hit the bottom of the market, and it looks like early signs of recovery. And the India market is still doing well. So, the net net is that we see supply going down and demand going up.

Q. How do you see the rise of lab-grown diamonds impacting the natural diamond industry, and what strategies can be employed to coexist?

It depends on the different markets. Lab-grown diamonds is a US market phenomenon. It happens to be the biggest market. But in the last year or two they’ve had an impact on demand. As the retail pricing of the lab-grown diamond comes down, the consumer understands that these are two very distinct and different products. Even in the US market, retailers are questioning the viability of lab-grown diamonds because they're not achieving the retail prices that they would do. So we think it's peaked in the US and we'll see a decline in the coming years. In big markets such as China, consumers care about authenticity and having the real product and that's directly impacting the lab-grown diamonds’ ability to grow in that market. And then in India, again because diamonds are cut and polished in India, there's a relatively higher awareness of lab-grown diamonds, but without really penetrating the retail market. So maybe in the future at the very low end, the fashion end of the market, lab-grown diamonds might have a position. But the numbers are so small now that they're not having any impact on the natural diamonds in the India market.

Q. What are the key factors driving consumer behaviour or consumer demand for natural diamonds?

Jewellery has played a part in culture for thousands of years. How diamonds engage with that is through relevance, authenticity, their heritage, and their uniqueness. There are so few things in this world that are natural and one-of-a-kind, that aren't just produced at scale. And people, more than ever, appreciate things that are unique and individual because otherwise how can anything have meaning if these can be produced by their tens of thousands in a factory? People want, particularly with jewellery, scarcity and individuality. That’s why natural diamonds will continue to become more and more desirable as they get more and more scarce.

Local workers employed at the Aurostar Facility, Botswana, contributing to the nation's economic growth

Q. Millennials are particular about sustainability and ethical sourcing. How does Natural Diamond Council address that concern?

Our role is to ensure the consumer understands the value of the positive impacts of natural diamonds and that is something most people aren't aware of.

For example, in Botswana, natural diamonds contribute significantly to the nation's economy, making up around 30 percent of the country's GDP. It’s 80 percent of their foreign currency. That means the kids get free education, they get roads and schools. It's now one of the most prosperous nations in Africa versus where they were 50 years ago, before diamonds were starting to be recovered there.

Explaining that to the consumer through each of these digital social platforms is important because people just think of mining. But the positive impact is incredible. And then once the mine has reached its end of life, there is a full financial escrow in place to make sure the mine is fully put back to nature afterwards, which you see in the case of the Argyle Diamond Mine in Australia.

So there's a lot of work done to make sure there is no long-term negative impact of the mine once the diamonds have been recovered.

Also read: The Indian Market Is Key To Becoming A $1 Billion Brand: Angara Co-founders

Q. What initiatives or certifications are in place to ensure that natural diamonds are conflict-free and responsibly sourced?

The key international certification scheme and a multi-stakeholder initiative that does that in the diamond industry is the Kimberley Process, which is a United Nations mandated organisation. It's their job to make sure that conflict diamonds don't get into the supply chain, also to ensure that the value of natural diamonds cannot be used to fund rebel movements around the world. Every government in the world, whether they're exporting diamonds or importing diamonds, whether it's the civil society, whether it is the diamond industry, the flow or the supply of diamonds around the world is protected by the Kimberley Process certificates and the system of warranties to ensure conflict diamonds are eradicated.

Q. What role does NDC play in fostering collaboration between industry and stakeholders, including miners, manufacturers and retailers?

At the NDC, we are responsible for consumer communication. How do we communicate the value and positive impact of natural diamonds to consumers? It involves everyone in the value chain, starting with the producer countries. We have a strong relationship with the governments and the mining companies and how we tell their story through the value chain. We have partnerships in India with the major diamond manufacturers. They’re doing incredible work themselves in terms of supporting communities and their employees. And then, we have partnerships with all the major retailers in the world who help tell the story. Since they're the point of contact with consumers, we work with them to help them explain the values of natural diamonds to their clients.

Q. Tell us about the campaigns NDC has helped create.

In the last two years we've done two big campaigns, which were in Canada, bringing attention to the incredible landscapes and wilderness of Canada and showing just how difficult it is to recover natural diamonds in -40° temperatures and incredible climate. And then similarly in Botswana, we're going to see the schools and the hospitals and the wildlife protection that's there. We go to these countries for a week to 10 days and just create campaigns, create stories. Through these we bring to the world's attention the positive impact of natural diamonds.

Q. What are the challenges faced by the natural diamond industry and how do you aim to address them and promote the value of natural diamonds?

The main challenge has been the external factors to the industry. We've been through a pandemic, which was actually very strong for diamond jewellery. People coming out of the pandemic very much wanted to invest in something with meaning and something that was personal to them and so the diamond jewellery industry had an incredible 2021 and 2022. We then have the challenge of the Ukraine crisis and that deeply impacted the supply chain. We've had the challenge of lab-grown diamonds specifically in the US market. But that seems to have now peaked and lab-grown diamonds have now become much cheaper products and therefore are not competing with natural diamonds.