High prices of tomato have been a cause for concern for the RBI since spillovers from tomato price spikes to prices of other commodities may put inflation at risk
Spillovers from tomato price spikes to prices of other commodities and unhinging inflation expectations remain a major concern.
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Steady increases in the price of the humble tomato have not only punched a hole in household budgets but may even cause a headache for the Reserve Bank of India as it tries to keep a leash on inflation. The central bank remains worried that the steep price spike of tomato prices have spilled over to other items causing inflation volatility.
“Spillovers from tomato price spikes to prices of other commodities and unhinging inflation expectations remain a major concern. Increasing amplitudes of price spells over the years calls for improving the supply chains to contain overall inflation volatility,” RBI says in its monthly July bulletin.
Typically tomato prices have been an important contributor to volatility in overall inflation, as its price volatility also gets transmitted to prices of other vegetables in both retail and wholesale markets. As the tomato is a highly perishable item with a very short crop duration, it shows seasonal variation in prices but these episodes are short-lived, RBI says.
According to RBI analysis, the average duration of a high price episode derived shows that prices stay above Rs 40 a kilogram for an average duration of 2.6 fortnights whereas prices remain below Rs 20 for an average duration of 10 fortnights or roughly five months. Similarly, prices of a kilogram of tomato remain in the range Rs 20-40 for 4.76 fortnights, based on the Markov Chain transition probability matrix. Markov Chain transition probability matrix indicates the probabilities of transitioning from one state to another in a single time unit.
“Multiple crop cycles with varying time spans across locations lead to more than one spell of price spike within the same year. While the yearly peaks have exhibited a general increase, the troughs have remained largely constant, indicating that prices do not ratchet up across spells,” RBI says.