It was going along quite swimmingly till 2002 for the weathermen of India. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a normal monsoon for that year. As the season wore on, it became clear that the monsoon would be anything but normal. It was 19 percent below normal and India experienced its first drought after 1987. This resulted in a 12 percent decline in food production. Weathermen couldn’t explain why they had been unable to see it coming. “There was little understanding of what had happened. And different institutes had different explanations for the deficiency,” says M. Rajeevan, scientist at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory.
A Search for Truth
(This story appears in the 02 July, 2010 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
I want to thank the author Ashish K Mishra on his well-researched article on 'Monsoon Rainfall' modeling. I like the lucidity and simplicity with which different aspects of past and new models have been presented. Any serious follower of Mass media in India will attest to the fact that the field badly needs journalists with technical bent-of-mind, especially those reporting on subjects related to science and technology. May your tribe grow!
on Jul 19, 2010Having interacted with the climate community very briefly, I as a common man have understood the difficulty in predicting The Indian Monsoon. This is a very tough job given the capacities in terms of infrastructure that the Indian Meteorological organisations gave. It is not just IITM and IMD, there is another organisation called NCMRWF, that is also a part of this pioneering effort. Looking at the current investments the government is making in the area of meteorological research seems to be a very positive side of the story. But on the flipside, there is a need for more people getting into this area, which these institutions are currently lacking.
on Jun 29, 2010