The beginning of a new decade is a powerful elixir for the forecasting tribe. Most impressive, of course, is the pinpoint accuracy of the predictions spawned by their complex mathematical models. Thankfully there is still hope for most of us with “normal” mathematical ability. In thinking about the future, what matters is identifying likely scenarios and what they imply for investments. Equally important is to arrive at a robust, unbiased estimate of the likelihood that each of these events might occur. It is true that the essence of risk concerns the unexpected. Where does that leave us?
(This story appears in the 05 February, 2010 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
Nice article. There is considerable confusion among investors about what constitutes 'cash flow'. Positive cash flow from operating activities is what investors should look at. Subhankar (tinyurldotcom/mobugobu)
on Feb 3, 2010