The Middle East, Through An Indian Prism

For the past few weeks, haunting images of thousands of protesters from Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon and Bahrain have raised hopes of a pro-democracy movement sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East. The reality is far from this though. The vacuum created by the lack of democratic structures is always difficult to fill. Look at Egypt. The 30-year-old Mubarak regime may have been booted out, but no one is quite sure whether the military rule will continue even after September, when the elections are due.

So just how will history books remember this revolution? Our understanding of the Jasmine Revolution has been driven so far by television images of mass protests and the newspaper dispatches from the conflict zone. By all accounts, the situation on the ground is fluid. Yet beyond the sound and fury of the protests lies an untold story of a larger and deeper crisis facing the Middle-East region. And it isn’t just about oil, but also about an equally precious source of sustenance: Water.

We invited Sundeep Waslekar, a noted Middle-East expert and president of Strategic Foresight, a leading think tank which advises governments around the world, to make sense of the Middle-East crisis for Indian readers and to also sketch out a long view of how the geopolitics of the region is all set to change. His essay provides an insightful picture of a region in turmoil — and why it presents both a threat to and an opportunity for India.

Our strategic affairs apparatus continues to be far too obsessed with the US, Pakistan and to some extent, China. As a multi-polar world takes shape, this may well be a fallacy. As  the societies in the Middle-East look to transform themselves, India could use its economic card to help some of these countries join the knowledge economy. The pay-off s extend well beyond energy security. Adding more chaos in our already troubled neighbourhood could be a case of adding fuel to the fire (pun intended). That is why a stable Middle East is in everyone’s interest.

We’d love to hear what you think. Do write in with your own views on the Middle-East Crisis.