Rain watch for September 21-27: Monsoon at fag end, pulses sowing lags

The late surge of 'large excess' rainfall in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan led to heavy flooding, thus the distribution of rainfall remains erratic. Image: Pisit Boonma/ Shutterstock

At almost at the fag end of monsoon season, late rebound in rainfall over most parts of the country like northwest and central regions and some southern states, has reduced deficit. Overall steady increase in water storage level is expected to be beneficial for rabi crops.

Cumulatively, pan-India rainfall deficit in the period June 1 to September 24 has reduced to 5.6 percent from 8 percent in the previous week, according to Barclays analysis based on Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data. However, the late surge of 'large excess' rainfall in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan led to heavy flooding, thus the distribution of rainfall remains erratic.

IMD has said that southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from parts of southwest Rajasthan as on September 25. “A low pressure area is likely to form over north Andaman Sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal by around September 30. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards with possibility of gradual intensification,” it says.

Also read: Rain watch for September 14-20: Monsoon tad better, crop yields still uncertain

With just another week to go before the season ends, it is likely that the cumulative rainfall deficit will remain below 10 percent, marking an overall normal monsoon season for the current year, in line with IMD’s forecasts, says Barclays. Monsoon rainfall within (+/-) 10 percent of long period average (LPA) for the pan-India region is typically considered normal.

As of September 21, storage in key reservoirs was at 71 percent compared to 66 percent in previous week. The dry spell in August had led to a decline in water levels as reservoir storage is an important irrigation source for the rabi season. While levels are lower than last year at this stage of the monsoon season, they have improved markedly in the past two weeks. Currently, water levels stand at 81 percent of available capacity and lower than the historical average which is 92 percent of the 10-year average.

Also read: Rain watch for Sept 7-13: Monsoon weak, crop yields uncertainty rises

Kharif sowing has reached 100 percent of normal area, driven by rice, coarse cereals, oilseeds and sugar cane. However, sowing of pulses continues to lag at 86.6 percent of normal area- possibly the lowest since 2015, increasing the likelihood of increased imports of pulses. The first advance estimates of kharif season will likely be available by the end of the month, which will give a more accurate assessment of crop production for this season, says Barclays.

Forbes India presents a weekly series Rain Watch where we simplify rainfall status, water reservoir levels and sowing pattern of kharif crops data analysis by Barclays.