Rain Watch for Sept 5-11: Crop yields at risk due to heavy showers

People wade through waterlogged roads following heavy rains in Vijayawada, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, India, September 4, 2024. Image: REUTERS/Stringer

Excessive rains continued in few select regions while water reservoirs are filling up. However, with kharif sowing nearly complete, excess rainfall may pose a risk to crop yields, and potentially impact food inflation.
 
On a cumulative basis, rainfall was 7.3 percent above the long period average (LPA) as of 8 September, based on Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data analysis by Barclays. The monsoon surplus persisted over the past week, though rainfall was concentrated in a few states in the north/west (Rajasthan, Gujarat) and the south (Tamil Nadu). 

 
From July, rainfall in the three states (Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu) has been in excess in a range of 45-82 percent above normal, leading to floods. Monsoon rainfall in other states has been either deficient or normal in September. Overall, the distribution of rainfall has changed slightly, with the number of subdivisions seeing excess rainfall increasing to 12 in the past week (from nine at end-August), while the number of subdivisions receiving normal rainfall decreasing to 17 (from 19).

Also read: Rain Watch for Aug 29-Sept 4: La Niña likely in final lap of monsoon season

 
According to Barclays, persistent excess rainfall conditions may pose a risk to crop yields while the IMD has forecast “above normal” rainfall in September. 

 
With kharif acreage sown already at 99 percent of normal, Barclays expects only marginal increases from hereon. This year, the area sown is about 1.9 percent higher year-on-year, driven by increases in acreage of rice, coarse cereals, and pulses. 

 
Reservoir storage levels are above historical levels, though regionwise distribution varies. Storage increased modestly to 81 percent of total capacity as of September 5. This translates into 131 percent of the live storage level of the year-earlier period and 118 percent of normal storage. The central, southern and western regions show higher storage capacity, while those in the northern and eastern regions have below-average storage, reflecting the cumulative rainfall pattern this season.