Is the extraordinary debut of Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi assembly election a revolt, a revolution or a flash in the pan? Can it be expanded to new geographies and states? Can it be scaled up to leave its impact on the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Is AAP’s success a function of the small constituencies and unique socio-economic conditions of Delhi—or is it a larger political phenomenon?
If AAP had won say six or even 10 seats in the Delhi election, the answers and conclusions would have been fairly easy. The diffidence in making predictions has occurred because AAP did much better than anybody expected—whether critics or adherents—and took home 40 percent of the assembly’s seats.
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(This story appears in the 10 January, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
AAP should go for 2014. ye 2014 ka election hr party ko against Arvind Kejriwal ladna hoga...
on Jan 9, 2014aap should do well in UP ...UP has worst leaders currently...COMPARED TO OTHER STATE..
on Jan 6, 2014i cannot predict any part coming with victory in 2014 in lok shabha election ...... but if aap do well in uttar pradesh..then there could chances of coming national party. because every one where up stand now , with largest lok shabha constituency....
on Jan 6, 2014BJP supporters should welcome AAP fighting LS elections. In Delhi AAP got 30% vote of which 20% was from Congress, 8% from BSP
on Jan 5, 2014Industrial growth down,Employment rates down,National security threatened,Dollar price up, Inflation high, Service sector down, Agricultural growth down,100s of Bills pending. In this situation if AAP makes a dent to BJP's vote bank , it will only result in a 'Hung Parliament'. We all know that how much ever honest we become, there is no substitute to experience.
on Jan 3, 2014I like your point about AAP\'s competing choices- Focus on Delhi first and build an organization nationally slowly or go national now on the risk of not being able to capitalize in Delhi itself. I think AAP should have opted for the first choice. India need a political alternative like AAP to keep checks, but for that, it will have to mature through experience. But Indian media has sensationalized \"the AAP phenomenon\" since Delhi results (where AAP came second, no majority, no victory) so much that they have mistaken it for reality. Congress bosses must love this- Finally someone can keep Modi out of middle class leaving rooms.
on Jan 3, 2014AAP in Bangalore will be a non starter. They use Hindi Banners and have no local connect at all. There is not even a single known local face in AAP who can speak good Kannada and have good understanding of at least Bangalore, leave alone Karnataka. They also hesitate to take any stance on mainstream issues of Karnataka like Cauvery crisis or Belgaum border row and the likes. Local media was cold to them until Delhi results happened but even now, whatever little coverage local media gives to AAP is basically about Delhi and not to anything AAP doing in Bangalore. Unless AAP understands that Bangalore is not a hindi belt city and speaking Kannada is very much essential to stand any chance in the city, they will be an imaginary force in the city.
on Jan 2, 2014Agree with you. The folks who support Kejri support Modi too. T That\'s another challenge for AAP
on Jan 2, 2014The observation is good but we have to wait and watch the AAP performance in Delhi. In my mind, they will start some new things that will put a deep impact on entire our political system.
on Dec 31, 2013AAP is being backed by Congress to stop Modi.To that extent,AAP may be more relevant than those American muckrakers.Also the MSM appears to be readying for wall to wall coverage for AAP, thanks again to its dislike for Modi.But if Kejriwal trumpets himself too much through media, there could be further consolidation of votes for Modi.Also this time entire Parivaar is likely to be active for BJP.mobilisation will be similar to what we had seen during Ram Janmabhumi movement.
on Dec 30, 2013A country of Indias size. ,population, diff cultures, people, languages, are we all correct In digressing so much about TINY AAP, in tiny DELHI aap getting say 35 lacs votes ,BJP missing by a whisker, 3 to 4 seats.,and correctly not forming govt. Responsibility of BJPand MODIJI is mammoth India, let's understand, DELHI IS NOT INDIA. Bjp needs to oust corruption, scams, loot ,meaning thereby Congress and corrupt ALLIES. media may totally favour CONGRESS ,RAHUL, AAP ETC ETC, but notwithstanding all this MODIJI IS BY FAR. WAY AHEAD IN POPULARITY and to say crowds is not votes makes little sense. Bjp needs to be FOCUSSED booth by booth and must keep eyes and ears close to ground zero ,and the entire bjp team and all close proven allies must do the field work. MSM ,tv channels ,are not the BJPS eyes and ears, it's their booth level KARYAKARTAS I feel confident BJP will hit 300 plus with MODIJI and his work and the trust people have on him to be INDIAS P.M
on Dec 31, 2013I completely agree with the author. It is mere a state phenomena as they don\'t have any ideology
on Dec 30, 2013Employment rate down,Industrial growth down,Agricultural growth down,Dollar price up,Service Sector struggling, National security threatened,Inflation high,100s of bills
on Dec 30, 2013Industrial growth down, employment rates down, national security threatened, dollar price up, inflation high, service sector down, agricultural growth down, 100s of bills pending. In this situation if AAP makes a dent to any of the political parties like Congress, BJP, etc...
on Dec 30, 2013Post facto analyses need not be taken very seriously. If this author had made this prediction before the election, it would have had more value. His is just one more theory to make light of AAP. Arvind kejriwal is a second \'M N Roy\' who is practical. He is team oriented and not self aggrandizing and does not want to hog publicity for himself like some other leaders. He is a \'gem of the purest ray serene\' and has able and equally genuine and clean team members like Prashant Bhushan and Kumar biswas and Manish Sisodia, to name a few. I dont accept the muslim vote angle mentioned by Jaysartn. I was in Delhi in 2011, when Anna fasted and saw the enthu and public awareness and participation it created. AK is a selfless worker - selfless not only regarding money but even fame. He is a sharing person. He is not developing a personality cult. Corruption not a main issue ? Funny to hear some one say that. Corruption, if tackled, will make all policy implementation fruitful and the fruits will reach the intended recipients. Mark my words, AAP is going to redfine the meaning of the word \'Politics\' in India.
on Dec 30, 2013It is sad to see that AAP voters get carried away by gimmicks and populism. Governance is not just about doing away with Lal bathis, staying in a modest accommodation, and shunning security. Governance is about delivering promises and a vision for the country overall. There are serious national issues beyond corruption. Internal and external threats via naxals and Pakistan aided terrorism. Kashmir is an achilles heel. Even veteran leaders like Vajpayee struggled for a permanent solution for Kashmir. On the other side China is staring at us in the face. Unemployment is another big challenge the country is facing. The country is going thro\' numerous other issues. Lokpal is not a solution for every issue that we are facing. AAP says it will contest only 300 seats but doesn\'t want to ally with any other party bcoz they think they are the holiest of all. Fine! But do they think they will have 100% strike rate or close to that to form a govt on its own. Its highly impractical. Again it will be a situation like Delhi.... a hung parliament and Cong will come thro\' back door. Like to add that many many senior economists have warned that AAP with its socialist/populist policies will take this country\'s economy down the drain. Wish AAP voters rethink and cast their vote thoughtfully.
on Dec 30, 2013AAP is going to deliver just wait and watch. You have been watching Congress and BJP always failing to address people\'s issues and distribution companies which eat on farmers hard work. They have been in power for more than 60 years. It\'s not even 2 days and u talk about AAP like this. Let the tenure finish, Arvind Kejriwal is an educated man who also has the wisdom and vision of a developed country.
on Dec 30, 2013Really? And FYI BJP was not in power for 60 yrs. So don\'t make sweeping statements.
on Dec 30, 2013Rahul dont u remember our current PM and FM are much better educated than AK. Do you still find a strong relationship between studies and integrity. Degrees may not bring wiseness but sometimes degrees may bring arrogance.
on Dec 31, 2013AAP is definitely a national phenomena. They have definitely raised the bar. People are fed up with conventional political systems that never delivered.
on Dec 30, 2013The people of country now seriously looking for alternative which sans cast, creed and communalism so in the present context people like A.K and his company has bright furture.
on Dec 30, 2013Sir, you still don\'t get it. You make some sweeping conclusions, like (1) the vote in Delhi was for Kejriwal, the individual, (2) it was a protest vote, (3) they have no economic agenda. And then, you extrapolate your flawed assumptions to conclude that its because of these reasons that they won\'t work at the national level. Sir, wait and watch.
on Dec 30, 2013Wait and watch, they will surprise you in a 5 years.
on Dec 30, 2013The author makes an excellent points. The voters who voted for AAP will vote for Narendra Modi in General elections. Since he is capturing urban interest, I highly doubt the urban voters would like to see the a hung assembly like Delhi. Its very scary to imagine a third front - Arvind, Mamta, Jaya, Naveen P, Nitish, Mulayam
on Dec 30, 2013It was not an aam admi vote that AAP got in Delhi. It was a communal vote, with Muslims voting en bloc for the AAP. It was openly declared by Muslim clerics in the last few days before the elections that Muslims must vote for AAP. Five out of eight Congress victories being Muslims show that it was a communal vote of Muslims preferring Muslims among Congress candidates and opting for AAP in other places. Is this a victory for aam admi? Why no writer is writing on this core issue? Moreover, out of 28 seats that AAP won, it won with less than 1000 vote margin in 4 seats and with a margin between 1000 to 2000 votes in 4 other seats. The margin is not high in many other constituencies. This inside story is not discussed by MSM, why? Had the Muslims not voted for AAP, even these 8 seats would have been lost. In the final analysis, the muckraker candidates would not lose out as a natural corollary, if the communal vote is going to persist.This is a real danger for Indian democracy.
on Dec 30, 2013The article analyzes AAP phenomenon from conventional angle. If you had asked the author of the article, if the AAP would have made an impact in Delhi election, he would have said it's not possible, analyzing AAP in the conventional way. AAP cannot be analyzed by conventional commentators, who are conservative in their outlook. AAP is about a revolution in the way democracy is perceived in India. It will grow and force conventional parties to make internal changes to respond to people and address issues in better way. Systems needs to be put in place to address citizen grievance and public servants will become citizen centric addressing their issues. Money needs to be allocated to right priority with the correct transparency on all matters relating to governance.
on Dec 30, 2013Commentators like Ashok Malik still don\'t get it. The AAP phenomenon cannot be viewed through a normal prism. Its politics is here to stay. Just because a policy agenda cannot be easily slotted as either left or right of centre does not make it a crackpot agenda. History may well see the rise of AAP as a watershed moment -- a beginning of solution-centric politics in India that cuts across class- and caste-based divisions.
on Dec 30, 2013