The very idea and, indeed, the belief that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is within smelling distance of the prime ministership of India is relatively recent. Although a small group of devoted Modi fans have been doggedly propagating his relevance outside Gujarat, the establishment groupthink in India was equally dogged in rejecting the suggestion out of hand.
Till the BJP made its landmark announcement on September 13, 2013, proclaiming Modi as its candidate for the top political job, there were two beliefs that appeared to dominate. The first centred on the belief that the established leadership in the BJP and, for that matter, the RSS would never give Modi any position of extraordinary importance. His popularity among the foot soldiers was acknowledged but this was offset by the associated fear that Modi would overshadow the rest of the leadership.
Present indications are that if Modi is able to shift the focus of the Lok Sabha election from constituency battles to a contest for the top job, he will be the most successful. Disaggregated data from the more credible of the opinion polls suggest that Modi’s personal appeal is significantly higher than that of the BJP. The polls further indicate that whereas Modi’s personal appeal has a national spread, the BJP’s ability to convert that goodwill to victories extends to some 295 seats, with the other existing NDA partners adding a further 30 seats. The conclusion is inescapable: To win, Modi and the BJP must have a spectacularly high strike rate in their traditional areas of influence.
Check out our Festive offers upto Rs.1000/- off website prices on subscriptions + Gift card worth Rs 500/- from Eatbetterco.com. Click here to know more.
(This story appears in the 10 January, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
How can a person having been on the run for wrong reasons from the age of eighteen be the PM of the biggest democracy. A young boy is like a terrorist in the house and he is a threat to his father. Modi at the tender age of 18 was no exception he wad a fire brand and has remained so being fed on the rss ideology committed certain crimes which had the police behind him. Saddam hussain was also no exception, he shot a nan at the age of 11 and kept the smoking gun under the pillow and feigned sleep. After the results are out things shall be automatically revealed.on Apr 30, 2014
If Narendramodi Wins it is not that BJP is strong but Congress is Weak. There is a vacuum that needs to be filled,perhaps BJP(Narendra Modi ) could do it. Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),Indiaon Apr 24, 2014
Why people are so stupid that they talk about AAP. Arvind kejriwal lives in his dreams. Listen to his speech guys he has no idea what he says. He and aap people keep on accusing people and that also without proof. See how he ran from delhi govt. People who support aap should leave this country along with arvind kejriwaland build a aam admi country for yourself. In india Narendra Modi will rule.on Feb 20, 2014
Excellent article by Swapan Dasgupta. This is a right time for Modi. Not because Congress is at it's weakest, but because India needs a game changer. There is no guarantee that Modi will pull it off but he is the best choice. What India must have is another system of governance to replace the current governance by fiefdoms, fiats and cancerous corruptions. The UPA and its cohorts have managed to push India back 60 years instead of forward. This government must explain to India and every Indians why India and China started at the same point sixty years ago and today China has galloped to the first world status while India is in the third world swamp. Was not Indian Democracy intended to move India ahead faster? The average Chinese have five times the income of an average Indian. Mr. Manmohan Singh owes an explaination before asking for one more vote for the Congress party.on Jan 11, 2014
you cannot ignore Arvind Kejriwal. You were saying that AAP is new and doesn\'t know abcd of politics. then why are both of congress and bjp copying them? #aapeffecton Jan 9, 2014
you should learn form the history,. Delhi voters did not choose the three term CM Sheila Dixit or 128 year Old Congres party.Delhi voters made a prudent choice as experience party and leaders were were loaded with corruption. When voter see corrupt as the major issue , why is NAMO not supporting RTI for political parties? why is NAMO not supporting JANLOKPAL bill, why is NAMO not in favor of a strong Lokayukta inGgujrat what is he afraid of ? BJP talks about black money but it will not disclose from were it got 800 crores of fund, how are BJP candidates spending crores of rupees ? how did the BJP MLA\'s net worth increase by 700% in the last five years ? AAP has clear policy not to accept a candidate with any criminal charges. BJP like Congress is loaded with criminal charges., specialty Modi \'s top lieutenant Amit Shah . NAMO must answer all these questions and more, but he will not because his strategy for 2014 is constructing a gigantic statue of patel spendin$450 M(last time bjp won they launched a campaign to build ram mandir) this is Brand building not service to the nation. Why NAMo spends $25 million to APCO for PR and AAP spends zero for such publicty ? See AAP website sharing pictures statements, ideasl of other AAP leaders too and not just kejriwal;s picture. see any web site of Guajrt Givernemt, any media you see Modi and and Modu. AAP leaders like A, Manish Sisdia, Yogendra Singh, Yadav, Ms,Birla.. WHat I know about leaders of APin less than a week , I do not know about leaders of Modi-Gujarat in 12 years. I do not know what shape, policy exists if Modi dies or get incapacitated. ( The way I see the fate of Tarun Tejpal or Justice A.K Ganguly change overnight anything can happen... or some handky panky is discovered in the snoop gate) BJP will be orphan in terms of prospect if one person is not around ! . I do not have to worry for same in case of AAP if AK goes out of picture . on top of that, the person who you call the greatest leader is always with Z security and often seen him hugging Ambani and giving him freebees! Gujarat is paying 3 5crores interest everyday on the borrowing. check teh government schools in Gujarat in NDTV documentary. he throw so much rubbish in his rallies mainly lies.. on every rally he spends atleats 100 crores , Modi has image and track record that he always puts himslef first. AK has image that he puts people first., Modi\'s style i sdecide first himself and then consult others. AAP style is different ,. Then there is liability of communal factors. BJP has not attracted Muslim votes no matter what PR they do by recriuting Zafar Sareshwala, Nbabasahem Asifa Kahn , , BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi etc PR do more Sadbhavana like shows. Kejriwal is religion-neutral. Modi is religion-centric. Kejriwal unites. Modi divides. These are the images and perceptions , All votes are not likey to give carte blanche or blind check as you do. No one is accusing that AAP used cast or community factor in the last election Even you may rather see AAP get 30 sets and make alliance with BJP than past NDA partners like Jay Lalitha from AADMK or Mamta or Maya when other past partners like BJD ( Naveen Patnaik) Janta Dal ( Nitish Kumar) are now openly against Modi personally , and they have very few partners to count on like Shiv Sena ( I do not think you may Hindu liberals like Shiv Sena) or Akali Dal,.Communist , left and secular party will never support BJP nor they have ever done in past. If Modi is Chanakya as his supporters ardently believe , do you think Modi /BJP make some alliance with them or at least leave door open ? At presnet BJP leaders seem to paranoid and they are aggressively maligning AAP which is barely one week old in power !on Jan 8, 2014
well, I agree there is Modi wave in the air. But it will be totally foolish for the BJP to ignore kejriwal factor. I think Modi is just an option for India's youth. If Kejriwal stands for PM's post, majority of them will vote kejriwal.on Jan 6, 2014
No AAP should prove in delhi firston Jan 6, 2014