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India fertility rate (2000-2025) explained: Past data, current numbers, and how it compares globally

The fertility rate in India has dropped over the past few decades. Here's what it means, why it matters, and how it compares globally

By Forbes India

Published: Jul 1, 2025 06:24:59 PM IST

Updated: Jul 1, 2025 06:24:34 PM IST

India’s population is massive, but the population size alone doesn’t tell the whole story of a country’s demographic health. Behind these numbers are several indicators that help determine how a population is changing, and one of the most important among them is the fertility rate.

Over the years, India has witnessed a steady decline in this value, with many parts of the country now reporting lower fertility rates than previously. This isn’t necessarily good or bad on its own, but it does indicate a significant change. From the size of the future workforce to the shape of family structures, fertility rate is closely tied to how societies grow and plan ahead.

In this post, we’ll discuss what the fertility rate means, why it matters, what is driving the decline, and provide past and current data for a better understanding.

What is the fertility rate?

Fertility rate or total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime, based on current birth patterns. It’s a core measure used by demographers to track and predict population growth.

It is calculated using the formula:

This means the number of births occurring per 1,000 women in specific age groups, and sum these across the reproductive age range, usually 15 to 49 years.

It's often confused with the birth rate, but they are not the same. The birth rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population, whereas the fertility rate focuses on women and the average number of children they have. The fertility rate gives a clearer picture of population trends over time.

Why the fertility rate in India matters

The fertility rate in India plays a crucial role in shaping long-term demographic structure. If the rate is too high, it can put pressure on housing, healthcare, education, and natural resources. If it's too low, it may lead to a shrinking population, an ageing workforce, and increased pressure on social welfare systems.

India is experiencing a lower fertility rate every year, which is a major concern for the future labour supply. A decline in the number of young people entering the workforce can slow down economic growth and impact policy systems. It also affects sectors such as education and childcare services, which may need to scale back.

On the other hand, healthcare systems may experience higher demand due to an ageing population. By tracking the fertility rate in India, governments can plan better for shifts in demand across various sectors.

Fertility rate in India: Historical and current data

Let’s quickly look at the fertility rates in India over the years and their current status.

Year	Fertility Rate in India
2025	1.90
2024	2.03
2023	1.97
2022	1.99
2021	2.01
2020	2.04
2019	2.12
2018	2.18
2017	2.19
2016	2.28
2015	2.28
2014	2.29
2013	2.39
2012	2.47
2011	2.53
2010	2.59
2009	2.67
2008	2.71
2007	2.77
2006	2.86
2005	2.95
2004	3.04
2003	3.12
2002	3.21
2001	3.30
2000	3.35

A glimpse into the current scenario

India, with about 1.4 billion people, is the most populous country in the world. But, at the same time, the total fertility rate in India has dropped below the replacement threshold of 2.1, currently standing at 1.9 children per woman.

What's striking is that the southern states, including Karnataka (1.6) and Tamil Nadu (1.4), now report fertility rates that are comparable to or even lower than those of many European nations. With fewer children being born, it indicates a slower workforce growth, an increasing median age, and transformations in social and healthcare infrastructure.

The government focuses on achieving and maintaining replacement-level fertility of around 2.0 as a key target. To support this, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has emphasised the importance of healthy timing and spacing of pregnancies, access to modern contraceptive options, and region-specific support.

Initiatives such as Mission Parivar Vikas, awareness campaigns like Vasectomy Fortnight, and the approval of state-specific budgets under the Programme Implementation Plan (PIP) are all part of this effort. These steps are structured to manage fertility in a way that supports long-term demographic balance and ensures people have the tools to make informed decisions about family planning.

What’s driving the lower fertility rate in India?

The lower fertility rate in India is closely tied to social change and better access to healthcare. Some key factors include:

Late marriages: Women are marrying late, which naturally delays childbirth and reduces the total number of children born.
Education and awareness: Women's empowerment through education and job opportunities has increased, leading to greater awareness of reproductive health and family planning.
Improved healthcare: Access to maternal and child healthcare has improved, with an increase in institutional births and more reliable medical support.
Urbanisation and nuclear families: Societal norms are changing, and preferences for smaller households and fewer dependents are increasing.
Family planning: Both government programmes and private healthcare provide family planning options, giving couples more control over when and how many children to have.

Comparing India’s fertility rate with other countries

India’s fertility rate, now at 1.9, is on par with the global shift. Today, more than half of the world’s countries, covering two-thirds of the global population, have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1.

To compare, China’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.1, one of the lowest globally, while the United States stands at 1.6. Europe is also following suit, largely due to ageing populations and changing lifestyles. The fertility rate in India falls somewhere in the middle, lower than that of many developing nations but higher than countries like China and South Korea (0.78).

This shift places India in a global context where lower fertility rates are becoming the new normal, while raising important questions about how societies plan for the future.