If you are a rational investor, you should be very scared of 2010. Very, very scared.
Almost everything has a good chance of going wrong. Food prices have gone through the roof, officially rising nearly 20 percent. As grains, pulses and simple vegetables like tomato increasingly go out of reach, millions of Indians will be forced to cut back their other items of expenditure to be able to feed themselves. The fear of shrinking demand has already led to a fall of nearly 50 percent in new borrowings by producers of goods and services. The government is spending much more than it is earning, leading to a record fiscal deficit in recent times. Interest rates are set to rise.
Be Indian, Buy India
More than a decade ago, when India’s per capita income crossed $500, K.V. Kamath made a crucial decision. Looking at the economic history of many countries, the CEO and managing director of ICICI Bank figured that the crossing of key income thresholds always unleashed a new wave of consumption and thus, economic growth. He then launched a retail banking operation expecting a similar burst of activity among Indians. The following years showed he had made the right call.
There are enough indications that Indian companies are gearing up for a second wave of growth. The country has just come out of a slowdown that followed five years of heady expansion. Companies had invested heavily in plant, machinery and people and were faced with overcapacity when things started to go bad in early 2008. In 2009, non-food credit growth was just 44 percent of deposit growth. In 2008, it had been 86 percent. So, many concluded that companies had put fresh capital expenditure on hold.
But the BoP market is much more than selling low-cost products, says Sivakumar of ITC. Companies will have to invest in innovation to develop products suitable for these markets. For instance, smokeless stoves that are less harsh on the housewife are becoming hugely popular. Somebody will soon make a detergent that produces lather even in the hard water that poor people typically get.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Build or Perish
Question No. 1: Which industry grows at four times the rate of GDP rise and presents the single largest opportunity for Indian investors?
MULTINATIONALS: Aliens in the Attic
When iconic motorcycle brands Harley Davidson and Ducati got launched in quick succession, much was made of how the Indian market has moved up the premium chain. The admirers, however, missed a couple of news stories that revealed how it was also moving down the premium chain. Procter & Gamble and Panasonic both said they were shedding their long-held premium tags, rolling up sleeves and getting their hands dirty in the mass market.
(This story appears in the 22 January, 2010 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
A brilliant article with lots of insights. Now i know why Forbes is Forbes. Why couldn't such article be written before. There were no self congratulations and 'we are one' stuff and each of the analysis was done with clear precisions and arguments. <br /> Kudos to you and your team.
on Jan 19, 2010The article is enlightening. The topics are written with good reasoning so that any one can understand it completely. I want to subscribe to Forbes India magazine. This is amazing piece of journalism
on Mar 26, 2010