Predicting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s future is a tricky business, doubly so, because he has a habit of springing surprises. He writes his own script.
The supremely wily British PM, Harold Macmillan, when asked by a reporter what he feared most in politics, said, “Events, dear boy. Events.” By that he meant unexpected and unanticipated occurrences that can derail the most stable of governments.
Modi, who after nearly 100 days in office looks in total command, seems sure of not just one term in office, but two or even three. With an Opposition that is decimated and devastated, and the overwhelming majority of public opinion behind him, he looks extremely secure. (Clearly, I don’t share his feeling that he is getting a curtailed honeymoon; he is actually getting an extended honeymoon period.)
Assuming Modi continues to live in 7, Race Course Road for a fair amount of time, what kind of India will he usher in?
First, it will be an India over which he has absolute political control. This should be clearly apparent to even the most novice commentator. To implement his vision for India, Modi intends to consolidate power both within the government and the party. With Amit Shah as the new president of the BJP and Arun Jaitley as his right-hand man, that goal is already half-achieved. There is opposition to him within the party—from LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Murli Manohar Joshi and some chief ministers—but they can only strike when Modi seriously falters, loses public support and, most importantly, loses RSS backing. When and if that will happen is something I will refrain from speculating on, except that it cannot be ruled out.
What is Modi’s vision for India? Prior to and just after the elections, he seemed prepared to make the country a right-wing paradise, extremely friendly to big business and unfriendly to the welfare state and jholawallahs.
After the Budget, though, things seem less certain. While the BJP constituency, the middle and the neo-middle class, are being pampered, the PM is pulling his punches.
P Chidambaram, the UPA government’s finance minister, is already claiming the Budget as his—that there is something for everybody. True. Modi has ruffled a few feathers and appears to be cruising along a centrist path. Of course, this is his first (and early) Budget. Therefore, he may be testing waters before embarking on transformative measures. Nevertheless, all indications are that the expected turn to the right may be both marginal and gradual. The welfare state is not about to be dismantled and the jholawallahs are not being sent to prison.
So, what is his vision? I would like to reserve my judgement on the question. Certainly, the speed at which Modi was scheduled to move the country away from the centrist consensus has slowed. Does that mean we will have a status quo as far as policy is concerned?
Perhaps Modi has realised that unlike Europe and the United States, India is not a middle-class society. While this class is growing, the predominant class here is the poor. Whatever criteria you fix, at least 35 percent of the 1.2 billion people will be the poor. There is no way any astute government can ignore that fact. The pink papers tell us that PM Modi has spurned the radical advice of Messrs Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya sticking firmly to the middle path. Whether he will continue on that road is an open question.
In the area of foreign affairs, Modi has bowled a googly to his foes and friends. His audacious invitation to Pakistan Premier Nawaz Sharif does not fit into his Pakistan-baiting background. Indeed, he has shown both pragmatism and courage in reaching out to the international community which may have had some misgivings about him.
Check out our Festive offers upto Rs.1000/- off website prices on subscriptions + Gift card worth Rs 500/- from Eatbetterco.com. Click here to know more.
(This story appears in the 22 August, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)
It is surprising such wobbly argument runs through this article - the author has assumed a number of things, mostly his personal misgivings, and then arguing that these will bring either a Modi vs Sangh clash or Modi being vengeful and taking it out on the English media, the ilk of Vinod Mehta. The article also makes one to wonder the journalistic acumen of Vinod Mehta where everything is presumed. At least, one thing he could speak honestly that he is a pseudo secular and as such has tailed behind the pseudo secularism of the Congress party for so long and he has now grown confused like the Congress party. Otherwise, what is the point of writing such a gibberish?on Aug 21, 2014
Mr Mehta, if you cannot answer your own question, why print unintelligent articles like these which exhibit your own detriment?on Aug 18, 2014
Dear Writer, People like you have been harping the same thing since 2002. You guys can never talk or rather, can\'t talk about issues like development and progress. No wonder, Congress has gotten away over the past 60 years, riding the wave over fools such as yourself. The party is over. India is MODIFIED and he will make India redeem its rightful place in the world, in the years to come. What Mr. Modi does not like is not the press, but the press reporters like you who write shit, always pessimistic and have nothing better to do except rake up minority appeasement politics. You actually write VandeMataram is resented by Muslims? Vande Mataram! Long Live India!on Aug 15, 2014
Outstanding article. Yes. Shri Narendra Modiji will transform India for better. Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),Indiaon Aug 15, 2014
Modi is a great political player. He took support of young generation in winning this election. He showed them a dreamland, days of better india. He may be slow right, but there must be some good plan in his mind. if something seriously better is not given to the people of this country, he will be ruled out like AAP party's leaders.on Aug 14, 2014
Its too early to judge Narendra Modi, in my view. Its less than 100 days that he formed a Government. The contours of what he'll achieve and what kind of legacy he leaves behind will become clearer only around May 2015, when he completes one year in office. Until then, I think he'll keep everyone guessing with one move or another. The so-called "experts" in the media shall keep speculating one way or another, without really bothering him too much. Fortunately, Modi has the people's mandate to do so. I'm sure Modi's immediate focus will be to win the forthcoming Assembly polls and strengthen his party's position in the states, so there is no disconnect when it comes to implementing the Centre's policies at the State level. As Mr Mehta has mentioned, if Mr Modi intends to govern India for two, or three terms, then he needn't make haste. Its important to lay a rock-solid foundation, have the correct team in place, build a strong and solid structure.on Aug 14, 2014
I agree with Mr. Vinod, Expectation of 125 Crore Indians from new govt. specially Prime Minister Mr.Modi is very high, Modi got support from public now its time to expand his vision for betterment of country with the balance of opposition and his own party members views. Yeah He has to obey RSS but it should be in limit for the shake of nation.on Aug 14, 2014