How the Trump administration stance on H1B will play out for India

The President-elect's appointment of Indian-American Sriram Krishnan as one of his policy advisors has triggered a debate on key visa provisions for Indian immigrants

By Naandika Tripathi Forbes India Staff

Published: Jan 6, 2025 04:48:28 PM IST

Updated: Jan 6, 2025 05:17:53 PM IST

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Indians have made substantial contributions to the US tech industry, with many holding key positions in top companies. For instance, Kevan Parekh recently took over as Apple's chief financial officer, Indian-origin CEOs are leading companies like Google, Microsoft, YouTube. Beyond the tech world, too, Indian-Americans are making their mark in US politics, as evident from President-elect Donald Trump's recent appointments of several Indians to key positions in his second-term Cabinet.

One such appointee, Sriram Krishnan, selected as the senior White House policy advisor on artificial intelligence (AI), has reignited the debate on H1B visa holders. Critics opposed the appointment, citing Krishnan's support for easing green card caps and simplifying the process for skilled foreign workers. The H1B visa programme, which allows US companies to temporarily employ foreign workers in speciality occupations, has been a contentious issue.

The US labour market relies heavily on foreign workers to fill critical skill gaps, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Like Ankur Agrawal, who is currently on an H1B visa, says, “Most of the US universities are dominated by immigrants. Many Americans do not prefer to pursue advanced degrees, resulting in a technical knowledge and skillset gap.”

After completing his MTech from IIT-Bombay, Agrawal moved to the US seven years ago on a student visa to pursue a PhD in Materials Science and Engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He currently works as an application development engineer at KLA, a semiconductor manufacturing company that sponsors his visa. “Companies have to pay a significant amount to sponsor an H1B visa,” he adds. “So, naturally, they reserve sponsorship for important roles and high-paying jobs.”

Every year, US employers seeking highly skilled international professionals compete for a limited pool of H1B visas, which are allocated by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Due to the low statutory cap on visa numbers, demand has consistently exceeded supply in recent years, resulting in the cap being reached well before the end of the year. Research shows that H1B workers not only complement the US workforce but also fill essential employment gaps in various STEM occupations, ultimately expanding job opportunities for all.

Those opposed to the visa argue that the programme takes jobs away from American workers, drives down wages, and fails to ensure they are paid fairly. They also claim that the programme is often abused by companies to hire cheaper labour. Some lawmakers have proposed legislations to reform the visa programme, including stricter requirements for companies to prove they cannot find qualified American workers.

On the contrary, supporters of the H1B argue that it is essential for US companies to remain competitive in the global economy. They claim the programme allows companies to attract top talent from around the world, filling critical skill gaps in fields like technology, healthcare, and finance. Supporters also argue that H1B visa holders contribute significantly to the US economy, create jobs, and drive innovation.

In addition to their contributions to the tech industry and US politics, Indian-Americans are also making an impact on the startup ecosystem. A report by Indiaspora reveals that Indian immigrants have founded or co-founded 72 out of 358 unicorns that have emerged in the country since 2018. Furthermore, Indian-Americans are among the highest earners in the US, with twice the average wealth of the rest of the country.

Despite these contributions, Indian workers on H1B visas are facing challenges. The US tech industry's mass layoffs in September affected many Indian workers, who are already struggling with stringent visa regulations, skyrocketing application fees, and lengthy green card wait times. According to the US Congressional Research Service, many Indian workers face green card backlogs spanning decades, with some waiting over 100 years for permanent residency.

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Companies filing multiple H1B visa applications together may face restrictions. In recent years, there has been a surge in rejections, and renewals are taking longer. The situation has worsened post-pandemic, explains Mumbai-based immigration lawyer Gaurang Parikh. "There are also some individuals attempting to falsify information to obtain H1B visas, which has led to stricter regulations. A recent case involved a person who was deported to India after being found to have misrepresented information, despite already having secured an H1B."

The US government aims to prioritise local citizens for jobs currently held by H1B visa holders. Annually, 80,000 H1B visas are granted, 60,000 for international graduates and 20,000 for individuals who have earned advanced degrees from US institutions. The government seeks to fill the latter category with local students, he adds.

The semiconductor and software industries heavily rely on H1B visas, but in this challenging environment, even if Indians miss it, there are numerous opportunities back home, says Srini Chinamilli, co-founder and CEO of semiconductor company Tessolve. The visa debate is intensifying as Trump's inauguration on January 20 approaches. Despite his previous tough stance on immigration, Trump has recently expressed support for the H1B programme, stating that the US needs "the most competent people" and "smart people coming into our country”.

As the debate unfolds, all eyes will be on what Trump has to say, as this visa is crucial for the US economy to thrive, and with many Indians considering moving back to find jobs in their home country, the US would not want to lose out on this talent.