The first budget of the Narendra Modi government was cautious. The hope is that reforms will come year after year and cumulatively make a powerful impact, propelling India forward. There is one area, however, in which India must make drastic change—one in which baby steps won’t work: Monetary policy.
No country can become a true global economic power without having a sound and stable currency. Britain, for example, was a second-tier country until it fixed the pound to gold in the early 1700s, when Isaac Newton was Master of the Mint. Germany and Japan didn’t escape the devastation of World War II and rocket to economic prominence until each, in effect, tied its money to gold in the late 1940s. China’s surge was helped enormously in the mid-1990s, when it tied the yuan to the US dollar, as Hong Kong did in 1983.
India has been bedevilled by inflation from its chronically weak rupee, as it labours under the Keynesian delusion that excessive money printing helps growth. It does the opposite. It hurts capital formation. It creates high interest rates, which in turn harm investment. It breeds crony capitalism. A money system is based on trust. Debasing a currency debases society, and inflation undermines social cohesion and social trust.
The hard truth is that even if a country “gets things right” regarding spending, subsidies, taxes and regulations, its economy won’t become a thriving, innovative giant with deep capital markets unless its money achieves a Rock of Gibraltar-like reputation for reliability.
Raghuram Rajan, the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), seems to understand the harmful impact of inflation. But for India to break decisively from its bad monetary habits of the past, two key things are critical.
• The new government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi must unequivocally support a new direction for the rupee and the RBI. There’s absolutely no reason that the rupee can’t quickly achieve the coveted status of a hard currency on a par with the dollar, the pound, the euro and the yen. Doing so would give India an enormous advantage over China, which wants to make the yuan a global currency but isn’t sure how to go about it.
• India must learn how to get its monetary policy on the right footing. This will require courage, because, sadly, as I point out in the book I recently co-authored, Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy and What We Can Do About It, economists know less about the subject of money than their forbears did a century ago. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a font of ignorance when it comes to pro-growth economic policies, will fight this, as will officials of the big international banks (which make immense sums of money from currency instability), along with most economists, including those in India.
Money measures value the way scales measure weight, rulers measure length, and clocks measure time. Imagine how chaotic life would be if the clock were “floated” the way the rupee is today: 60 minutes in an hour one day, 48 minutes the next day, 72 minutes the day after that. A cake recipe calls for the batter to bake for 45 minutes. Now, is that nominal minutes or inflation-adjusted minutes? Fixed weights and measures are essential to a smooth-functioning marketplace, as is a fixed value for money. Money itself is not wealth; it’s a claim on products and services created by people in the marketplace. Counterfeiting is illegal because it’s a form of thievery. So is inflation.
Once India has mastered the currency peg, it can then take the great leap of fixing the rupee to gold. Defending the fix will be easy. Say the new ratio is set at 80,000 rupees per ounce of gold. If gold went much above 80,000, the RBI would sell assets until the 80,000-rupee level was restored. In other words, it would reduce the monetary base. It would do the opposite if the rupee fell below the 80,000 ratio—buy bonds until the 80,000 mark was achieved. Contrary to myth, a country needn’t own an ounce of the yellow metal to operate a gold standard.
(This story appears in the 22 August, 2014 issue of Forbes India. To visit our Archives, click here.)