During August, monsoon rainfall was lowest in a century. The rising risk of El Niño may impact rains and crop yields as reservoir storage levels decline, which affect both industrial activity and winter crops, creating price uncertainties
Following a dry August with monsoon rainfall the lowest in a century, September is expected to see normal rains, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD). It forecasts monthly rainfall to be normal at 91-109 percent of long period average (LPA) in September with above-normal rainfall in the east and Northeast, but likely below-normal rainfall for the rest of the country.
However, there is a warning of El Niño conditions, which may intensity further and continue up to early next year. Currently, weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.