Fossil fuels will remain foundational in 2030 despite efforts to adopt clean energy, and India's path to net zero will be non-linear, multi-dimensional and multi-technology, says the report
Workers clean photovoltaic panels inside a solar power plant in Gujarat, India.
Image: Reuters/Amit Dave
The trade-off between energy security and economic growth is both a challenge and opportunity for India, says a report by S&P Global, as the country tries to balance its energy security with affordability and sustainability.
The report, called India Forward: Emerging Perspectives, released on September 19, says that while India’s energy demand will continue to increase in the coming years, its heavy reliance on oil imports make it vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility, making energy security even more important. “India’s energy security is tied to the energy transition and focuses on adopting clean energy, while continuing to use oil and gas for growth,” the report says.
India has had an “all of the above” sentiment with respect to energy transition, which means encouraging clean energy while not giving up on any kind of fossil fuel. This “all of the above” sentiment is finding traction in more countries around the world, rather than villainising any particular kind of fuel, says Rajeev Lala, director, upstream strategies and transformation, S&P Global. He explains that even as India focuses on adopting clean energy, the country is at 90 percent oil import dependence, and is also moving towards north of 70 percent import dependency on gas by 2045, from the 50-odd percent now.
To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C—as called for in the Paris Agreement (2015)—emissions need to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. India has set a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, and major oil and gas companies in the country have similar individual targets between 2035 and 2050.
No fuel in the history of energy has been phased out completely, and there is no reason gas, oil, or coal will be phased out as countries pursue their net-zero targets, says Atul Arya, senior vice president and chief energy strategist, S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to him, energy transition in India will not be linear, but multi-dimensional, multi-technology, and different from the trajectories of the US, China, Europe and the rest of the world.