There's a lot riding on the Ranveer Singh-Alia Bhatt starrer, as the Hindi film industry, competing with OTT, Hollywood and South Indian cinema, has been struggling to draw the audience back into theatres
Bollywood actress Alia Bhatt (R), and actor Ranveer Singh (L) pose for a photo session during a press conference ahead of the "Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahani" film release; Image: Dipayan Bose/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
The reviews are promising, the songs have been well-received, and Karan Johar’s marketing team has left no stone unturned. Even so, analysts don’t expect Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani to clock in the sort of business that a film like this, with its star-studded cast, would have done pre-pandemic—because the audience, they say, has changed.
“Expectations are very high from Rocky aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani. This film looks to be like a family extravaganza. But we are not expecting really compelling numbers, as this kind of film would have done in the pre-Covid times,” says media analyst Karan Taurani, SVP, Elara Capital. “Pre-Covid, such a large-scale film with these actors could have easily done Rs 250 crore to Rs 300 crore in terms of net box office revenue. But even below expectations, a net box office of Rs 150 crore to Rs 200 crore for this kind of film should augur some respite for the industry.”
The Indian film industry lost 24 million viewers during the pandemic, according to Ormax Media. The cumulative box office for Jan-Jun 2023 releases stands at Rs 4,868 crore, which is 15 percent lower than the same period in 2022. At this rate, 2023 is expected to end at Rs 9,736 crore, which will be 8 percent lower than the annual 2022 box office of Rs 10,637 crore, as per Ormax.
On the other end, digital media grew and increased its contribution to the Media and Entertainment (M&E) sector from 16 percent in 2019 to 27 percent in 2022. Digital media’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is seen at 14.7 percent, whereas the film industry’s CAGR is pegged at a much lower 9.8 percent between 2022 and 2025, according to an EY report.
In India, an average cinema-goer watches films in the theatre in 1.5 languages in one year. Hindi is the most watched language, with an audience size of 58 million. However, the Hindi cinema-going universe shrunk by 21.5 percent vis-à-vis pre-pandemic, Ormax says.