The dean of valuation on why he doesn't see the food delivery company's fair value materially change and how 'numbers' flow from the 'story' in investing
Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance, NYU Stern School of Business Image: Alexander Tamargo/Getty Images for Vox Media
After sinking close to 60 percent since listing, over the past three months, Zomato’s stock price has been going up, and it hit a 52-week high of Rs 105 per share on Monday. The food delivery company reported a first-ever net profit in 15-years of Rs 2 crore in the previous quarter. In the last few months, several global brokerages have revised their rating to ‘buy’ and ‘outperform’. Some analysts, to explain the renewed confidence, point out that Zomato has a long runway for customer acquisition and revenue growth.
But how has the narrative shifted? And does it materially alter the value of the business?
Valuation guru Aswath Damodaran valued Zomato at Rs 35 apiece in July 2022 and he doesn’t see the value dramatically shifting. To explain why, in part-3 of a multi-part series, Damodaran, professor of finance, NYU Stern School of Business, underlines the importance of blending stories with numbers when valuing a company. Edited excerpts from the interview on Forbes India Pathbreakers in August:
And that's, I think, the key. Unless the story shifts, your value is not going to change dramatically. What could cause my story to shift? Well, if Zomato shows evidence that it can actually make money on grocery deliveries, that's a huge business. Then I'd be inclined to go back and revisit my story and valuation. I'm not stuck on my story and valuation. One of the biggest dangers in investing is falling in love with your own story for a company. In which case, you refuse to look at the data because the data might contradict your story.