Drawn on Confucian tradition, ‘relationality’ is explained by Yaqing Qin in his book ‘A Relational Theory of World Politics’ from 2018 where he posits that states weigh carefully the various relationships involved before they take an action. Because of their experience in Afghanistan, the US allies will calibrate differently their future engagement with the United States and will not automatically and blindly follow it in another war, while countries like Russia, Pakistan and Iran will also reconsider their engagement with China and may second it in a war if it suits their interests, even if they do not have formal military and security treaties with China.
The way the US treated its allies in Afghanistan made security treaties with Japan, Australia and other countries questionable. If US alliances become weak, some rivals could consider that the time is ripe for coordinated action. This could however be a miscalculation and a dangerous move because history shows that the US is extraordinarily resilient in times of crisis and that it has the capacity to mobilise allies even if they do not agree on everything.
Cedomir Nestorovic is ESSEC Professor of Geopolitics and Islamic Business and Director of the ESSEC & Mannheim Executive MBA Asia Pacific
First Published: Sep 22, 2021, 14:19
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