After a year of leading the global economy out of the pandemic slump, China's growth is now starting to level off, as the world tries to assess whether the country's recovery will continue or peter out
Sellers sort through pumpkins at a wholesale market in Jinan, in eastern China, on Tuesday, July 13, 2021. Consumer spending in the country has grown even more lackluster, despite its relative success in curbing outbreaks of COVID-19; Image: Qilai Shen/The New York Times
BEIJING — After a year of leading the global economy out of the pandemic slump, China’s growth is now starting to level off, as the world tries to assess whether the country’s recovery will continue or peter out.
The signs are mixed, with consumers and companies showing signs of both weakness and strength. The rising cost of raw materials is eating into the profits of factories and retailers, while exports remain strong. People are shopping more, but small businesses are suffering. Inflation is starting to make a comeback, muddying the data. And the ongoing uncertainty of the pandemic weighs over it all.
“It is unclear whether such a strong rebound in China and around the world can sustain itself in 2022,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.
China reported Thursday that its economy grew 7.9% from April through June, compared with the same period last year, falling short of estimates. Although that pace is still stronger than in many other countries, it is markedly slower than the 18.3% leap the economy made in the first three months of the year as it bounced back from lockdowns a year earlier.
China’s ultimate trajectory will be closely watched by the world. If China continues to chug along, it could portend a sustained recovery for the United States and other nations now bouncing back from their pandemic lows. If its economy further slows, it could drag down the rest of the global economy. Many countries now depend on Chinese factories and consumers.
©2019 New York Times News Service