What does the Ahmedabad crash mean for Air India's turnaround ambitions?

The accident is the first instance of an air accident under the Tata Group, which had laid out an ambitious plan to become a market leader in one of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets. India is the third-largest aviation market, after the US and China, and has more than 1,000 aircraft under order, a bulk of which have been placed by Air India and IndiGo. Together, the two airlines account for as much as 90 percent of the domestic market.  

“The horrific incident will force a review of all things internal,” Satyendra Pandey, the managing partner of aviation services firm AT-TV, says. “It is a fact that there has been a spate of complaints, and all of this warrants additional scrutiny. From pilot training to tech logs to ground operations, all processes will require examination. Nothing can be left to chance or pushed back to a time after the root cause is ascertained. In some ways, this is a setback to the turnaround plan as a hull loss with lives lost is every airline's worst nightmare.”

Also read: Indian aviation sector in 2025: Airlines face headwinds

The Air India turnaround plan 

Air India’s turnaround has been in the works since 2022 after the Tata Group completed the acquisition in 2022. The airline promptly appointed Campbell Wilson, a veteran at Singapore Airlines, to helm the transition after Ilker Ayci, the former chairman of Turkish Airlines, decided against joining the airline after first agreeing to come on board.

“Restoring Air India to its former glory is not a T20 match,” Wilson had told Forbes India in an interview earlier. “It’s going to be a test match and within that test match, there’s going to be patience and persistence and partnerships and maybe the occasional sixes and fours. But it’s going to be largely a function of accumulating ones and twos and building that foundation.”

In September 2022, Tatas unveiled a new plan titled Vihaan.ai, which translates to the dawn of a new era in Sanskrit. According to the plan, Air India says it has set itself clear milestones focused on growing its network and fleet, developing a completely revamped customer proposition, improving reliability and on-time performance, and taking a leadership position in technology, sustainability, and innovation, while aggressively hiring industry talent. Between 2022 and 2027, the airline planned to increase its market share to at least 30 percent in the domestic market while significantly growing the international routes.

For now, the domestic target seems well on track with the group cornering 27.2 percent of the market as of April 2025.

But beyond the market share, which is largely a function of the number of aircraft deployed, the turnaround, both culturally and physically, faces significant setbacks. With complaints as bizarre as a passenger urinating on another on board, to toilets getting clogged due to clothes being flushed, and broken seats and infotainment systems, the airline can’t seem to catch a breath.

“It's quite understandable why people have such high expectations of Air India and the Tata Group,” Wilson had told Forbes India. “And we're striving mightily to meet them as fast as we possibly can, given the real-world constraints of seat production, seat certification, seat installation, aircraft, maintenance, hangars, and slots.” 

It’s because of this the Tata Group now needs to pacify and comfort flyers after the ill-fated crash in Ahmedabad, which is certain to raise concerns about the airline’s safety checks. “This is surely a setback for Air India’s ambitious turnaround, but Air India has the wherewithal to overcome it as the senior management and leadership are clearly taking the lead in managing the situation,” says Alok Anand, chairman & CEO of Bengaluru-based Acumen Aviation, an aircraft asset management and leasing company. “As with any crisis, the focus and energy shift for now to managing the situation rather than any growth plans.” 

What happens now? 

In the immediate aftermath, it’s quite certain that Air India will see cancellations. That could mean an impact on market share, something the airline had been desperately working on as part of the transition. “There is most certainly going to be a forward booking fall-off for travel with Air India,” adds Pandey.

Today, IndiGo has a 64.1 percent share of the domestic market while the Air India group has 27.2 percent, leaving only 9 percent to others such as Akasa, SpiceJet, and Alliance Air. IndiGo also has a significantly higher passenger load factor (PLF) compared to Air India, which means it can fill up more seats than its rival. As of April, IndiGo’s PLF stands at 84.9 percent and Air India’s at 83.3 percent (Akasa’s is 93 percent).

Last year, IndiGo’s market share in overseas flights increased from about 18.27 percent in April-June to 19.35 percent during October-December, according to data from the country’s airline regulator, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. In that period, Air India’s market share fell from 24.79 percent to 23.05 percent.

“In general, it could have a short-term impact, especially if the results of the investigation are delayed,” adds Anand. “But that’s normal for any airline if an accident of this scale takes place. Let’s hope it doesn’t point a finger at processes, procedures, or human angles like pilot fatigue, as there is a lot of chatter about it lately.”

Interestingly, the crash is also likely to raise questions about the type of aircraft that airlines use. For many years now, Boeing has been at the centre of controversies regarding its aircraft manufacturing program, particularly the Boeing 737 Max. Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft were globally grounded in March 2019 after more than 300 people died in two fatal air crashes, in Indonesia and Ethiopia, leading to scrutiny of the American aircraft maker’s business practices. The Federal Aviation Administration, the US’s civil aviation regulator, subsequently sought changes to the aircraft, updating its software, wiring, and crew procedures.

While the 737 Max has returned to service now, whistleblower complaints of the past, including the use of substandard parts for the Dreamliner, an aircraft Boeing had claimed reduced fuel consumption by as much as 25 percent compared to the ones it replaced, have once again come into the spotlight.

India is even contemplating grounding all the Dreamliner aircraft—Air India operates 33 Dreamliners—for a safety review. In the around 14 years since it was first introduced, the 787 Dreamliner fleet has carried more than one billion passengers, faster than any other widebody jet in aviation history. The 787 also claims to have unlocked more than 425 new nonstop routes around the world, many of which were never served previously.

“On the more mature travellers, it may not have an impact,” adds Pandey. “However, in the age of social media and the rapid spread of information and disinformation, it is likely this will lead to additional scrutiny. Already, several theories are doing the rounds, and unfortunately, none can be dismissed.” IndiGo, in contrast to Air India, has relied almost entirely on Airbus for its fleet with 360 aircraft from the European aircraft maker, in addition to ordering some 960 more, all of them from Airbus. Air India uses a mix of Boeing and Airbus, with the Boeing aircraft being used extensively on international routes. The airline also has more than 500 aircraft on order from Boeing and Airbus. 

For now, all eyes will be on the Black Box of the aircraft, found on June 13, to ascertain the cause of the accident. India, which has one of the most stringent and best safety records in flying, will also be keen to understand the cause of the crash. “The safety situation will also be reviewed,” adds Pandey. “Whether it is reporting mechanisms, follow-up mechanisms, or checklists—everything is on the table. The regulators, airport authorities, OEMs, and ground operation personnel—all will come under review. On the point of best and most stringent norms, the proof is in the timely execution of these norms. And on that, there continues to be significant debate.”