Scientists said the revised "carbon budget" meant that humanity was now more likely than not to blow past the Paris Agreement's safer temperature threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era
This new assessment, which focuses on the main greenhouse gas CO2, calculated that the budget has now dwindled to 250 gigatons, measured from the beginning of 2023. Image: Shutterstock
The amount of CO2 the world can emit and still limit warming to 1.5C is much smaller than previously thought and could be used up in six years at current pollution levels, according to research published on Monday.
Scientists said the revised "carbon budget" meant that humanity was now more likely than not to blow past the Paris Agreement's safer temperature threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era.
"The window to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming is shrinking, both because we continue to emit and because of our improved understanding of atmospheric physics," said lead author Robin Lamboll, of Imperial College London.
But with climate impacts magnifying as warming increases, the researchers stressed that the findings make every fraction of a degree worth fighting for.
"It's not that the fight against climate change will be lost after six years," Lamboll said, adding however that if there was not a "strong downward trajectory" by then, it would be too late for that 1.5 degree limit.