Since there is currently no clear end in sight to the conflict, we should also not expect elevated commodity prices to return to normal any time soon
A local farm worker unloads fertiliser from a truck to use on a wheat field near the village of Yakovlivka after it was hit by an aerial bombardment outside Kharkiv, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, April 5, 2022. The wheat has been sown for the coming season but nobody in the farming village knows if it will be harvested.
Image: Thomas Peter / Reuters
On February 24 this year, Russian troops marched into Ukraine. The invasion has prompted much consternation over the implications for geopolitical stability in Europe and the international order, we should not forget that the war has both shorter and longer run consequences for the international economy.
For starters, Russia is a major supplier of the world’s commodities, including its leading fertilizer, gas, and wheat exporter. Ukraine is itself the world’s fourth’s largest corn exporter, and its fifth largest exporter of wheat and iron. At the minimum, the war would mean higher prices when pay our electricity bills, put petrol in our cars, and buy bread and cereal from the market.